2023 Roster Projections
Just a few questions
The latest projection for the Astros roster by Brian McTaggart had few surprises, but it’s still worth looking at and asking a few questions.
Catchers (2)
Martin Maldonado and Yanier Diaz - No real surprise here as everyone assumed it would be Diaz or Korey Lee. McTaggart believes Diaz gets the nod since he can also play first, but Lee is batting .333 on the spring. I’m not suggesting you make a roster decision solely on 18 spring at bats, but the Astros were 29th in catchers WAR last season and could stand some improvement, whether that means Lee or Diaz starts the season with the Astros, who knows, but I’m betting they both see some time this season.
Maldonado is scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the season, so I’m also interested to see if he starts a similar number of games (110) as last season or the Astros look a bit more to the future.
1st Base (1)
Jose Abreu - As noted above Diaz can backup here, but this is also where Hensley could come in. Personally, I feel Yuli’s defense was underrated by the advanced metrics, so when I hear things like “Diaz can play first” and see 412 MiLB innings (~46 games) that doesn’t instill much confidence. Hensley’s got more MiLB time at first base, but still not a ton. In my mind the defense at first will not be as strong as 2022.
Abreu had a 3.9 WAR last season, while Yuli struggled to -0.9, so the offense from this position should be much improved.
2nd Base, Shortstop, 3rd Base (3)
Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman
All will be interesting to track for different reasons. Can Altuve keep producing as age creeps in? Can Pena improve his discipline? (41.0% O-Swing) Can Bregman reproduce 2019 (.296, 41 HR, 112 RBI, 119 BB) or something similar?
Outfield (4)
Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Justin Dirden
Dirden is the surprise here and if Brantley is unable to go, it looks like McCormick in left, Meyers in center and Tucker in right.
I’m a Chas fan, but the threesome of McCormick, Meyers and Dirden is not awe inspiring.
Neither McCormick or Meyers has started and completed a full season (140 starts or so) as a starter in MLB, so I’m a bit dubious and Dirden has 32 games above the AA level.
Yordan also started 56 games in left last season, so that’s a positive.
DH (1)
Yordan Alvarez
Please get healthy.
Bench (2)
David Hensley, Mauricio Dubon
I’ve already detailed why this bench is weaker than 2022.
Starting Pitchers (5)
Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown
Still formidable, but not the same without JV and McCullers, Jr. on the shelf. The spotlight will be on Hunter Brown from start 1.
Relievers (8)
Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, Seth Martinez, Matt Gage
Gage is obviously the surprise here and we’ll have to see if this sticks.
Gage had good numbers with Toronto last year and good numbers this spring, but he’s faced 50 Major League batters, only 14 of which were lefthanded and he walked 3 of those, so I question the benefit, especially after being told they didn’t need a lefty in the bullpen for so long.
On the flip side, Gage allowed 0 hits to the 11 lefties he didn’t walk, so there’s that.
Personally, I prefer the length that Brandon Bielak can provide, but my guess is he’s looking at another year of shuttling between Sugar Land and Houston with Martinez as needed.
Thanks for reading.