2025 Projection: Framber Valdez

With JV in Arizona, can the volatile Framber Valdez lead the staff?

On some level, it’s a ridiculous discussion, but on others, it makes sense.

It’s also one we’ve had before.

With Justin Verlander in the desert, Framber Valdez has to be considered the Astros ace, with a 44-24 record and 3.06 ERA over the last three seasons to his credit.

It’s also his walk season and it’s unlikely he’ll be back in Houston next season, leaving me to wonder what Framber we will get in 2025.

The one that shows out in an attempt to increase free agency haul, or one that is cautious and doesn’t want to get hurt before reaping the benefits of the current CBA.

My numbers project very close to the Framber we’ve seen on average over the last three seasons: 15 wins and a 3.06 ERA across 30 starts.

I’m a data guy. I believe in numbers and that’s generally what I use to baseball.

That said, I’m not immune to Bregman’s clubhouse presence or Framber’s outsized displays of emotion at times and how things other than numbers can effect a game or even a team.

How Framber handles his unquestioned position at the top of the Astros pitching food chain will be an intriguing watch as 2025 unfolds.

Will he blow his top and lose concentration in the bottom of the 2nd in some random April game over a ball/strike call?

Or will he use that missed call as motivation?

I should be clear: Valdez is a very good pitcher and will be paid handsomely next season.

He will start Opening Day. He will start important playoff games, should the Astros get there.

Those are two characteristics included in the standard definition of an ace, but my definition looks for more consistency.

Here’s a chart of Valdez and Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal’s game scores from 2024.

There is more volatility in Framber’s starts and two numbers stand out.

Average Game Score: Valdez 58.8 Skubal 63.1

Standard Deviation: Valdez 17.8 Skubal 11.9

Valdez’s high is slightly higher, but his lows are much lower and more frequent, especially earlier in the season.

Framber has led the Astros pitchers in fWAR over the last four seasons at 14.2 and is fifth overall for all Astros in that time and the Steamer projections (link below) believe that continues in 2025, despite projecting only 12 wins and a 3.43 ERA.

My numbers are more bullish despite my observations and concerns about volatility in Framber’s starts.

As always, thanks for reading!

Projected fWAR: 3.5

Projected Win Shares: 7.6