2025 Projection: Isaac Paredes

Paredes will be under the microscope like never before

I selected the image above for a reason, as it’s what most think about when Isaac Paredes to the Astros was announced—the Crawford Boxes.

Perhaps no Astro is under more pressure than Paredes, who will take over at third base for Houston as Alex Bregman moves on.

Paredes will be suiting up for his third team since July 28, when he was traded from Tampa to the Chicago Cubs.

That wasn’t the only way his season was split. He recorded a 3.0 fWAR in 429 plate appearances in Tampa and only 0.4 fWAR in 212 plate appearances with the Cubs, slashing .223/.325/.307 with 3 home runs.

Simply put, he didn’t perform in Chicago.

We shouldn’t expect Paredes to be Bregman, either at the plate, in the field or in the clubhouse, but he does have some of the same traits, namely an elite BB% (93rd percentile), with lower Whiff% (88th percentile) and K% (81st percentile).

My projections above are conservative, as the Steamer projections linked below project a higher average, more home runs and more RBI.

If the Astros get the projected 3.9 fWAR out of Paredes combined with the expected improvement across the diamond at first, the trade-off for Bregman/Singleton to Paredes/Walker should be considered a net positive.

It’s not necessarily what we wanted, but it’s what we got and it may be better for us in the long run.

As always, thanks for reading!

Projected fWAR: 3.9

Projected Win Shares: 8.5