2025 Projection: Ronel Blanco
You've come a long way (from the carwash), Baby
After making the rotation with an outstanding spring in 2024, Ronel Blanco went out and no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays on April Fools Day, in Joe Espada’s first win as the Astros manager.
Blanco finished the season 13-6 with a 2.80 ERA, but struggled in July and August, winning only 1 of 10 starts and registering an ERA over 4.
He was nails down the stretch though, going 4-0 in September with a 0.75 ERA.
A successful season, no doubt, but concerns about Blanco’s peripheral stats have cast a shadow over the upcoming season and birthed curiosity on whether last season can be repeated, much less improved upon.
Despite allowing just 6.1 hits per 9 innings pitched, Blanco’s xERA was 4.00, 1.20 runs above his 2024 actual. His fastball velo was in the 38th percentile, BB% in the 22nd and Barrel% in the 19th.
The numbers below seem low to me for a 13-game winner, but are mostly a reflection of Blanco’s lack of a track record: He had 58.1 MLB innings before last season.
The projected ERA below is a third of an earned run higher than last season’s actual ERA.
Progress is not always linear in baseball, so there should be little surprise if Blanco took a step back in 2025, at least from my point of view.
Despite being 31 years old, Blanco is a “young”, inexperienced pitcher in many ways.
In 2024, Blanco had a 2.1 fWAR and 4.6 Win Shares and both are projected to decrease in 2025.
Projected fWAR: 1.6
Projected Win Shares: 3.5
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