2025 Steamer Projections and CSJ Win Shares

I thought Steamer projections were nuts, until they matched my projections

I’ve taken a few shots at Fangraphs.com various projections over the years (it’s why I started my projections and this site) and I could do the same with the 2025 Steamer projections.

They are not updated (the Astros still include an inning from Jose Urquidy, for example), but I find some of the projections — let’s just say far-fetched.

302 plate appearances from Taylor Trammell? 161 for Pedro Leon? 130.1 innings from Luis Garcia? 85.2 innings from Lance McCullers, Jr.?

Any of those could happen, but to project those? I don’t know about that.

I haven’t done a McCullers, Jr. projection for 2025, but eyeballing it and knowing my model, I’d guess around 2 or 3 games and 8 or so innings.

As we’ll see below, Steamer is jusssst a bit higher.

I’ve had some ridiculous projections, too, so glass houses, etc. and ALL projections should be taken with a high level of skepticism, mine included.

That doesn’t mean they’re useless, we can’t learn anything from them or discuss what they might mean.

Here are some notable nuggets from the Steamer Projections:

• Yordan is the highest-ranked Astros at No. 10 in MLB (5.4 fWAR), with former Astro Kyle Tucker coming in at No. 15 (5.1 fWAR).

• Free agent Alex Bregman comes in at No. 30 (3.9 fWAR), with the newest Astro, Isaac Paredes, just behind at No. 43 (3.7 fWAR). Theoretically, at least, there’s not much difference on the field between the two.

• On the pitching side, Framber leads the way with a 3.7 fWAR (10th among pitchers), with Hunter Brown (24th among pitchers) coming in at 3.2.

• Not to harp on a wild projection, but I’d be shocked if Lance McCullers, Jr. pitches in 32 games, starts 11, goes 5-5 and registers a 1.0 fWAR.

• No one has a negative fWAR projection, though many did in actuality last season.

As typical, I asked myself how much variance is there between these fancy Steamer projections and the site formerly known as Astros Projections (this one).

Yordan seemed like a good place to start, being a top-10 MLB player.

Turns out the answer is not very much.

At all.

Even down to 3 SB (not shown below).

I’m not sure whether to be happy about this since I just spent 300 words telling you why the Steamer projections aren’t very good.

But it is hilarious.

It’s a weird place to be, but this is just one player (the only one I’ve done a 2025 projection for to date) and my back-of-the-envelope McCullers, Jr. guess leads me to believe we aren’t going to agree on many.

Steamer and CSJ Win Shares

As I tend to do when numbers are involved, I like to look at them differently than most, because I need them to make sense.

Sometimes that works and sometimes it leads me astray.

In this case, if you add all the Astros projected fWAR up the total comes to 42.1 fWAR.

Using the .46 fWAR per win for the 2024 Astros, this would lead us to 91.5 wins. (42.1/.46).

That seems high to me given the current state of the roster, but again, Steamer apparently doesn’t do negative fWARs and those will happen for some players (Jon Singleton, Chas McCormick, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb and Grae Kessinger, among others, had negative fWARs in 2024).

Back in November, I introduced the concept of Win Shares, based on fWAR.

Here’s what the Win Shares would look like for 2025, based on current Steamer Projections.

In conclusion, I’m dubious of these projections, not necessarily individually (though a few stand out), but more collectively since there are no negative fWAR projections and those will invariably happen.

The projection of 42.1 fWAR is significantly higher than my current roster-driven estimate of 36.2.

How big is that 5.9 fWAR difference? Bigger than any single pitcher’s Steamer projection (Paul Skenes, 5.8) and all but four batters (Gunnar Henderson (7.4), Aaron Judge (7.0), Bobby Witt, Jr. (6.8) and Juan Soto (6.7).

In other words, it’s quite large.

About 12.8 wins using my formula.

Don’t be fooled. The Astros have work to do before Opening Day.

That and extend Yordan TODAY.

Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!