A Cautionary Tale

Astros have best odds to win the American League

Earlier this week we shared that FanDuel has set the Astros odds to win the West at -105 and that Fangraphs has tabbed the Astros as the team to beat in the AL West.

Much of the same applies to the American League, as the Astros have the best odds at FanDuel, though they’re only at 20.83% (+380), with the Yankees right behind Houston and the Rangers a distant third.

The World Series odds at FanDuel is +700 for Houston and that translates to 12.5% (or 1 in 8).

Over at Fangraphs, they assign an 11.5% chance of the Astros bringing home the Commissioner’s Trophy.

So, if you believe in the Fangraphs numbers, unlike the Division odds, this wouldn’t be a good bet.

But more than the Astros odds, I find the Rangers situation fascinating and a cautionary tale.

The team from Arlington won their World Series and I’m not one to diminish that feat, but not only does no one think the Rangers will repeat as Champs, most experts don’t even think the Rangers will win the West, make the playoffs or finish much over .500.

Rangers projections for 2024:

Win AL West: +200 = 33.33% (FanDuel), 10.1% Fangraphs

Win World Series: +1400 = 6.67% (FanDuel), 1.5% Fangraphs

Wins: FanDuel 89.5 Fangraphs 81.5

That last one may be worth a bet if you are one to gamble on such things, as an 8 game difference is huge.

For me, as ugly as the Rangers rotation may end up being if Jordan Montgomery lands elsewhere (which is likely), I have a hard time seeing that team win only 82 games with that lineup.

But Montgomery is emblematic of the situation the Rangers brass have placed themselves in: Because of the half billion spent on their infield, they can’t afford to pay a pitcher that could make them more relevant for longer.

Why am I spending time talking Rangers?

Because it’s a cautionary tale of the quick fix, signing players with a short-term goal in mind, but with long-term consequences that Astros fans could keep in mind when questioning why the team avoids long-term contracts, for the most part.

The Rangers got their World Series.

They’ve also got 33-year-old Marcus Semien and his $25,000,000 salary through 2029 and 39-year-old Jacob deGrom and his $37,000,000 salary through the same season.

That’s just two examples of what could turn out to be a lost decade for Texas.

The Rangers goal was to win a World Series and they accomplished that.

Crane has accomplished that twice and is in a much better financial position moving forward.

Both teams reached the ultimate goal, but one is much better positioned moving forward.

Thanks for reading!