AL Championship Series - Astros vs. Rangers

Survive and advance

Verlander trade looks better and better

I don’t have a sense of how large it was, but there were Astros fans who were not for the trade that brought Justin Verlander back to Houston.

To a certain extent, I got it then and I get it now. A weak farm system giving up two pieces that might - MIGHT - turn into good/very good players for a 40-year-old pitcher doesn’t typically sound like a good long-term strategy.

I would argue that the details matter and tipped the scales in favor of “do it”. The Astros were battling a Rangers team for the AL West title and the Mariners for a playoff spot.

This was not like the years previous when Houston was far and away the best team in the division. A pitching-rich team was suddenly struggling to find a starting pitcher who could remain healthy, get batters out (August/September starter’s ERA was 5.36 without Verlander), remain calm under pressure and not succumb to the proverbial rookie wall.

In steps Verlander who goes 7-3 down the stretch, with a 3.31 ERA in 11 starts.

Make no mistake, it’s not the same Verlander as prior or even 2022. Walks are up, strikeouts are down and he’s no Cy Young candidate.

But here’s the thing, the Astros wouldn’t win the West without him and they probably don’t even make the playoffs.

That and there’s no guarantee that Drew Gilbert and/or Ryan Clifford become MLB stars and even if one (maybe) or both (unlikely) become stars there’s certainly no guarantee that they would play any role in a future Astros playoff run. For all we know they could be part of a rebuilding process and sold off somewhere along the way.

Oh, and the Mets are paying a large chunk of Verlander’s salary.

Despite what Houston has accomplished in the last 7 seasons, playoff and title chances don’t come around that often and you have to take opportunities when they present themselves as reasonable gambles. You don’t get something for nothing.

Just ask the Mariners.

When (if) Clifford and Gilbert come of age, Jose Altuve will be in his late 30’s, Kyle Tucker might be on another team and maybe Yordan’s knees have given out. Who knows?

What we do know is Verlander was better than any option the Astros had before August 1.

None of this means the Astros will win the ALCS and/or World Series, but it does mean the odds are better than they were before Verlander returned.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 is Verlander vs. Montgomery.

Here is what some of the bullpens look like.

Batting Around

Astros batting for the AL Division Series.

Pitch Perfect

Astros pitching for the AL Division Series.

May not mean anything notes of the day

Bryan Abreu has faced 51 current Rangers in his career and has walked 0.

Yordan Alvarez had a wRC+ of 375 for the AL Division Series.

Martin Maldonado has 2 home runs in 4 career plate appearances against Jordan Montgomery.

Both Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly had negative FIP and xFIP measures for the AL Division Series in 5 combined appearances covering 5.1 IP.

Thanks for reading!