AL West Odds
The Astros by a mile?
FanDuel has set the Astros as the favorites to win the AL West at -105 odds. For those not familiar with betting on sports that equates to a 51.22% chance of winning the division.
Here’s what it looks like:
Those numbers give us:
Astros 51.22%
Rangers 33.33%
Mariners 25.00%
Angels 2.17%
A’s 0.40%
Yes, that totals more than 112%, but that doesn’t matter in the gambling world.
Over at Fangraphs, they project the Astros for 90 wins and to win the West over the…Mariners, yes, the Mariners, with the Rangers coming in third at 82 wins.
Both the Astros and Rangers win totals at Fangraphs seem low to me, which is backed up by FanDuel setting the Astros win total at 93.5 and Rangers at 89.5.
I haven’t put pen to paper, but anecdotally Fangraphs seems conservative, and as evidence, I’ll throw out not just those Astros and Rangers win totals at FanDuel, but also that Fangraphs has the Dodgers pegged for 92 wins in 2024.
The Dodgers could end up with 92 wins, I just don’t think it’s probable or even likely.
But back to the AL West.
Fangraphs sets the odds like this:
Astros 62.0%
Mariners 23.2%
Rangers 10.9%
Angels 3.4%
Athletics 0.3%
If you’re a believer in the Fangraphs numbers, the obvious bet here is the Astros as you’re ostensibly getting 10.78% value (62.0% vs 51.22% price).
You’d have to go all the way to -163 on the Astros to equal the 62% odds (61.98%), meaning theoretically any number up to that is a “value” - again, if you believe in the Fangraphs number.
Does this Astros team, as constructed at this very moment, win the AL West 3 of 5 times?
At first glance that seemed on the high side to me, but with the news that Jordan Montgomery is not likely to re-sign in Arlington the Rangers odds have taken a serious hit and it makes more sense than it did in November.
The Astros have their problems in the rotation already, with JV and J.P. France reporting some apparently minor issues, but that projected Rangers rotation without Montgomery? Yikes.
The Rangers will likely mash their way to more than the 82 wins Fangraphs projects, but without Montgomery the chances of Texas winning the West are slim.
Thanks for reading!