All Pitch, No Hit Astros Open Season 2-1

Astros outscore Mets 6-5 in Opening Series, face Giants next

The Astros got three quality starts in three games against the Mets, coming out ahead in two.

As you know by now, quality starts equals wins (typically) and the Astros put that theory to the test in the opening series.

Runs were at a premium for both sides and while there is plenty to be concerned about we’ll focus on the good for now.

Updated Projections

We have our first iteration of updated projections for batters and pitchers.

With 1.9% of the season completed, these are largely the preseason projections except for guys like Dezenzo and Smith.

Astros Expected Wins

While it’s still early to publish standings, especially ones that have the Athletics winning 130 games, here’s the Astros expected win chart.

The takeaway here is what a huge difference from last season.

Detailed Pitching Stats

It’s taken some work to get it set up and I may adjust along the way, but this kind of thing offers something not typically seen.

QS = Quality Starts

KS = Kikuchi Starts

EI = Easy Inning, which is defined as 10 or less pitches

SDI = Shut Down Inning, which is holding a team scoreless the half inning after the Astros score.

PSDI = Number of Potential Shut Down Innings.

IO = Retired side In Order.

A quick example: Framber had two easy innings in his six, and he also shut down the Mets twice after the Astros scored, so he was two for two in Shut Down Inning Opportunities.

Finally, he retired the Mets in order once in six innings.

My sense is the better pitchers are going to end up with more easy innings in the long haul and those lead to longer outings.

We’ll see how that plays out.

Fangraphs use version 2 of the Game Score metric and that’s what I’ll be using here.

Of note is that these sometimes change in retrospect, based on the constant used in the formula which is designed to keep the league average at 50.

On to the bullpen.

Still working through the kinks here, as only King had the opportunity for a Shut Down Inning and he nailed it.

King has two appearances, but only one opportunity at an In Order or Shut Down Inning, which is why he’s showing 100%.

Big picture: The bullpen had 0 Easy Innings, was 1/1 in shut down inning opportunities and retired the side in order in 3 of 8 chances.

None of the three times the Mets were retired in order by the bullpen was by Abreu or Hader.

Rando Stats of the Day

Houston is rocking a 57 wRC+ and .176/.290/.224 slash through 3 games.

Lots of swings outside of the zone - 33.7% - but the Astros HardHit% of 42.2% is good enough for 7th in MLB through Saturday.

The San Francisco Giants are 1-1 and playing the Reds in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon.

As always, thanks for reading!