Astros Hold on To Precarious Lead

Projected Standings have Astros with a 0.6 game lead

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Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings

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Rolling 30-Day Bats

Astros Continue at Top of AL West Projections

For the fourth consecutive day, Crawford Street Journal projects Houston to first place in the AL West.

An important caveat: Formula is not predictive or forward-looking.

Fangraphs has Houston a single percentage point behind the Mariners, while giving the Astros a 44.4% chance of winning the AL West and 60.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Projected Standings and Win Totals

The latest projected standings:

As it stands this morning, the playoff teams would be:

American League

Division Winners: Guardians, Orioles, Astros

Wild Cards: Yankees, Twins, Red Sox

National League

Division Winners: Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers

Wild Cards: Braves, Padres, Mets

Expected Win Totals for Houston after games of 7.6.24

First: Crawford Street Journal’s formula that includes run differential and runs scored and allowed weighted.

Next, a comparison.

The Pythagorean Theorem is based only on runs scored and allowed.

To meet these numbers:

Pythag: 42-31 .575

AP: 40-33 .548

FanGraphs: 40-33 .548

Win%: 37-36 .507

Luck Rankings

This indicates the part of the team’s winning percentage attributed to “luck”.

Positive numbers indicate “good” luck, negative numbers indicate “bad” luck.

In general, teams should be expected to regress to 0 (neutral).

This means teams like the Rays and Cardinals are likely to experience negative regression and teams like the Reds and Rangers are due for positive regression.

Power Rankings

Astros fall to 12th in the Power Rankings.

Thank you for reading.