Astros Projected Win Total Climbs

Turnaround Continues

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Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:

Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings

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Astros Continue at Top of AL West Projections

For the third consecutive day, Crawford Street Journal projects Houston to first place in the AL West.

An important caveat: Formula is not predictive or forward-looking.

Fangraphs has Houston percentage points behind the Mariners, while giving the Astros a 44.8% chance of winning the AL West and 62.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Projected Standings and Win Totals

The latest projected standings:

As it stands this morning, the playoff teams would be:

American League

Division Winners: Orioles, Guardians, Astros

Wild Cards: Yankees, Twins, Red Sox

National League

Division Winners: Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers

Wild Cards: Braves, Padres, Reds

Expected Win Totals for Houston after games of 7.5.24

First: Crawford Street Journal’s formula that includes run differential and runs scored and allowed weighted.

Next, a comparison.

The Pythagorean Theorem is based only on runs scored and allowed.

To meet these numbers:

Pythag: 43-31 .581

AP: 41-33 .554

FanGraphs: 40-34 .541

Win%: 38-36 .514

Luck Rankings

This indicates the part of the team’s winning percentage attributed to “luck”.

Positive numbers indicate “good” luck, negative numbers indicate “bad” luck.

In general, teams should be expected to regress to 0 (neutral).

This means teams like the Rays and Cardinals are likely to experience negative regression and teams like the Reds and Rangers are due for positive regression.

Power Rankings

Astros remain 11th in the Power Rankings.

Thank you for reading.