Betting on Brown

Hunter Brown led the Astros in Quality Starts and No Decisions in Quality Starts

After a wild 2024 that saw Hunter Brown enter May with a 9.78 ERA, reel off 8 consecutive quality starts at one point and eventually lead the Astros with 19 quality starts in 30 total starts, some are talking Brown up as a potential Cy Young Darkhorse in 2025.

While that’s not me, I understand the reasoning and I can certainly see Brown taking a leap forward in a stat that no one really cares about any more: Wins.

The Astros won 68.5% of their quality starts last season and went 14-3 in their Kikuchi Starts, but Brown had 7 no-decisions in his 19 quality starts last season (36.8%), by far the most of any Houston pitcher (team starters averaged 27.4% no-decisions on quality starts).

This came to my attention from another project I’ve been working on - the 2025 CSJ Astros Projections - in which I was surprised at the low win total generated for Brown.

Those projections are weighted towards history, not a linear progression of wins season to season, so you have to “do it” before I project it, in general, which may be something I need to look into moving forward.

After consecutive 11 win seasons the potential of 15 wins is there for Brown, who threw a quality or Kikuchi Start in two-thirds of his 2024 starts despite the horrendous start to last season.

Not only did Brown have 8 consecutive quality starts, but he finished that stretch with 11 quality starts in 12 outings, had a 1.16 ERA over 31 innings in June and a 2.26 ERA in 71.2 Post All-Star break innings.

After one quality start in his first eight starts, Brown proceeded to throw 18 quality starts in his final 22 outings.

Those final 22 starts saw Brown go 10-5 with a 2.31 ERA over 132.2 innings.

For reference, 2024 Cy Young Award Winner Tarik Skubal had 22 quality starts in 31 starts and a 2.39 ERA for the season.

It’s a tall order to expect Brown to compete at that level for 30+ starts, but he’s already done it for 22, lending credence to the Darkhorse candidacy and is perhaps Exhibit 1 in the need for me to overhaul my projection methodology.