Breaking Down the Yusei Kikuchi Trade

Fans question Dana Brown's deadline deal, but Kikuchi pays immediate dividends

The Astros 2024 Trade Deadline was a controversial one to say the least. While they did get a starting pitcher, many fans are unhappy at the price paid.

That along with only adding one other reliever with less-than-stellar stats, and many people are calling the Astros one of the losers of the trade deadline.

So today we will analyze the Astros two trades in 2024, and see if they really lost or if it’s an overreaction. 

The Astros first and most talked about trade was one with the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the Astros’ seemingly most common trade partners.

Here’s the trade:

Astros Receive: LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Blue Jays Receive: RHP Jake Bloss, OF Joey Loperfido, IF Will Wagner 

The Astros gave up a pretty sterling haul for Kikuchi, one that’s been heavily criticized across Major League Baseball by writers and fans alike.

It was a lofty price to pay, but it’s also a move that the Astros had to make for a starter. Houston needs length out of their starting pitcher and while Kikuchi might not be the lengthiest guy, he is sure of a much better bet to go five innings or longer than Jake Bloss.

Granted, Bloss only started three games, but Bloss threw a lot of pitches in just about every major league inning he pitched. 

6/21/2024: 1st Inning vs BAL: 19 Pitches

6/21/2024: 2nd Inning vs BAL: 15 Pitches

6/21/2024: 3rd Inning vs BAL: 38 Pitches

6/21/2024: 4th Inning vs BAL: 8 Pitches (Left due to injury)

7/11/2024: 1st Inning vs MIA: 21 Pitches

7/11/2024: 2nd Inning vs MIA: 28 Pitches

7/11/2024: 3rd Inning vs MIA: 20 Pitches

7/11/2024: 4th Inning vs MIA: 18 Pitches

7/23/2024: 1st Inning @ OAK: 17 Pitches

7/23/2024: 2nd Inning @ OAK: 18 Pitches

7/23/2024: 3rd Inning: @ OAK: 27 Pitches

7/23/2024: 4th Inning: @ OAK: 21 Pitches

This was my count of how many pitches Jake Bloss threw in every inning during his Astros tenure. It’s a small sample size, but Bloss did not have an inning that was truly easy or routine.

This is not something the Astros can have happen every five days. Again, they need length out of the rotation badly with how used their bullpen has been throughout the year.

While Kikuchi isn’t the perfect pitcher or even the best pitcher on the market, he will have a good chance at going longer than four or five innings.

Bloss does have good stuff and I do truly believe that he will be a good major league pitcher, but he won’t be ready for the major leagues truly until late 2025 or early 2026.

Jake Bloss was called up so quickly due to injuries and nothing else. Again, nothing against Bloss, but he won’t be ready to pitch for the Astros in 2024. It’s tough to let go of him, but for winning in 2024, this was the right decision. 

Joey Loperfido was a great story at the beginning of May. He hit .333 in his first major league stint, and many people, myself included, were yearning for Loperfido to be called back up, and when he did get called up only to be available for two games then getting sent back down again, I was annoyed and frustrated with the rest of Houston.

However, Loperfido in his third stint, did not do very well. He went 12 for 68 from June 21st to July 28th, (.176 batting average) and had four extra-base hits through this 22-game stretch.

Loperfido was definitely on a downward spiral as the season continued. No player is defined by a slump, but a lot of Loperfido’s weaknesses were shown during this slump.

He’s struck out a lot. In 118 plate appearances with the Astros, Loperfido struck out 43 times. That’s a 36.4 strikeout percentage which is not good. The league average strikeout percentage as of August 2nd is about 22%.

Loperfido’s age also comes into play. There aren’t very many stars that strikeout over 33% of the time at 25 years old. If the Blue Jays can find a way to correct Loperfido’s plate discipline, he can become a very good fourth outfielder. While it was difficult for us to let Loperfido go, I would not be opposed to letting go of someone whose ceiling is a good fourth outfielder, if they’re getting a starting pitcher to help them. I don’t believe they’re letting go of a star when they traded Loperfido. 

The last player that the Astros traded was Will Wagner. Son of former Astros closer Billy Wagner, Will Wagner played all over the infield for the Astros in the minor leagues. He hit .307 with a .853 OPS in 70 games this season at AAA.

Wagner has always been a decent infield prospect for the Astros but his positions were usually taken up in the major leagues with Bregman playing 3rd base, Altuve playing 2nd base, and Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton all seeing time at first base during Wagner’s AA time.

Wagner turned 26 on the day he was traded and he had never made the majors. It’s more likely than not that Wagner wouldn’t have made the majors with the Astros and if he did, it’s likely he wouldn’t have very many good opportunities to play.

Ernie Clement is currently Toronto’s everyday starter at 3rd Base, and the majority of 2nd Base at-bats are going to Spencer Horwitz. Being in Toronto’s system will help Wagner make the majors easier than Houston’s. 

Entering yesterday, Kikuchi had a 4-9 record, a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.34 WHIP. His stats were very underwhelming to many fans. His expected ERA was 3.98 which is a lot better than his actual ERA. His Stuff+ was also pretty good on baseball savant.

The most important part of the Kikuchi trade is the length he can give them as a starter. The Astros had four healthy starters before this trade that could go over five innings (Valdez, Arrighetti, Blanco, and Brown).

While these stats are less than stellar for Kikuchi, the length he’ll give is the most important part of his being on the team.

The bullpen (especially Bryan Abreu and Tayler Scott) has been used up this season. If Kikuchi can go around six innings and give up two or three runs, that should be enough to help the Astros win.

Another thing that hurts some fans is that Kikuchi is very clearly a rental. His contract ends after this year and it’s thought that the Astros won’t re-sign him, and even if they do, he’ll be 34 next year and most likely on the decline.

This trade is possibly a sign that this could be the Astros final season of contention. Kikuchi’s first start saw him go 5.2 Innings, giving up 3 hits, 2 runs, walking three and striking out 11 batters, including tying a team record eight in a row.

Kikuchi made a good first impression despite his many doubters. Only time will tell if Dana Brown was right all along.

What do you think about the Yusei Kikuchi trade? Let us know in the comments below or tweet your thoughts to us @astronomic1.