Chapter 3: How The West was Won

Stars on the move as Hot Stove heats up

It’s been two weeks since our last installment, a lot has happened and not just with the Astros.

A reminder that this is a snapshot in time and will change quickly as the rosters change.

The Big Picture

Using fangraphs.com roster resource and the players’ 2024 fWAR, here’s a color-coded, at a glance, best to worst for each segment of each team’s CURRENT roster as of 12.26.24 a.m.

Big picture: The Astros remain no lower than third in any area, with the Rangers having one fourth (rotation) and every other team being last in at least one category.

Still, Houston needs to address some things: Another outfielder to partially cover Tucker’s fWAR, the bench and a bullpen piece or two.

The Details

Where do the Astros need to improve? How big is the gap between the Astros and Mariners lineup? How about the difference between the Rangers and Astros benches?

And while we’re at it, how about the total fWAR for teams as of today?

After the Tucker trade and prior to the Walker signing the Mariners took the lead in the lineup.

With Walker’s 3.0 fWAR from 2024 added back in, the Astros have regained the lead.

What’s Changed for Each Team

What’s changed for each team since 12.13.24:

Astros

*Kyle Tucker was traded to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith.

*Christian Walker signed to 3 year/$60 million deal.

*Grae Kessinger DFA.

The Astros need another outfielder, arms in the bullpen and bench help.

Mariners

*A very quiet offseason for Seattle so far, but the Mariners apparently wanted Walker and are left looking for a first baseman.

*The Walker signing created a small cascade of AL first baseman activity with Josh Naylor being traded and Carlos Santana signing with the Guardians, taking additional options off the table for Seattle.

Rangers

*The Rangers have been busy, improving their bullpen, not necessarily with big names, but solid additions that push this group past the Astros, trading Nathaniel Lowe in the process.

*To replace Lowe they signed Joc Pederson.

Athletics

*Acquired Jeffrey Springs (0.4 fWAR) from Tampa and projected as a starter.

Angels

*Not much action other than purchasing a backup catcher and trading for a minor league arm.

The Estimated Wins

So, what’s it all mean?

Using the player’s 2024 fWAR and each team’s 2024 average fWAR per win we come up with estimated wins as things stand today.

Each team’s 2024 fWAR per win:

Astros: .46

Mariners: .50

Athletics: .48

Rangers: .54

Angels: .53

That gives us estimated wins based on the current projected roster.

The Rangers made the biggest leap over the last two weeks (+7.7 fWAR), but the Astros netted 5.7 fWAR with their transactions.

The AL West: Astros, Mariners and…

The Astros and Mariners are still far ahead in the AL West, but the Rangers are making moves, improving their bullpen and filled Lowe’s spot.

With Walker (and others) off the market, what Seattle does at first is an interesting off-season watch that could have a huge effect on how the 2025 American League West was won.

As always, thanks for reading.