Chapter 4: How The West was Won
Minimal Movement in AL West, but Mariners Make Move
It’s been slow to no news in the AL West since we last updated things on December 27th and avoiding arbitration taking up most of the space on the transaction wire outside of a minor move from the Mariners that we’ll discuss below.
The Big Picture
Using fangraphs.com roster resource and the players’ 2024 fWAR, here’s a color-coded, at a glance, best to worst for each segment of each team’s CURRENT roster as of 01.16.24 a.m.
Big picture: The Astros remain no lower than third in any area, with the Rangers having a fourth (rotation) and the other three teams being last in at least one category.
Houston needs to address some things: Another outfielder to partially cover Tucker’s fWAR, the bench and a bullpen piece or two.
The Details
The Mariners finally made a move and though it wasn’t the earth-shattering kind, it did improve their lineup slightly.
I say lineup because the analysis below is based on fangraphs.com projected lineup and they have placed the newly acquired Donovan Solano in the starting lineup, playing third and batting 8th.
Read more about Solano and the Mariners at SeaTown Sports, if you’re so inclined.
This also slightly strengthens the Mariners bench by sliding Ryan Bliss to the pine and projecting Tyler Locklear to the minors.
Take all that for what it’s worth since every Mariners and MLB source I’ve seen has Solano coming off the bench, but we know how that goes with Fangraphs, who just figured out Luis Garcia won’t be in the Astros rotation when the season opens.
The other news is the Rangers have continued to strengthen their once-shaky bullpen and now have the second-strongest in the division, at least on paper.
Since our last edition on December 27th, the Mariners have gained 1.0 fWAR and the Rangers 0.5 (all in the bullpen for Texas).
What’s Changed for Each Team
What’s changed for each team since 12.27.24:
Astros
*Hayden Wesneski is projected to starting rotation.
*Grae Kessinger traded for a minor leaguer.
Mariners
*Signed Donovan Solano.
Rangers
*The Rangers have been busy, improving their bullpen, not necessarily with big names, but solid additions.
*Traded Grant Anderson to Brewers for a minor leaguer.
*Signed Chris Martin to a one-year contract.
Athletics
*No acquisitions, but they did extend Brent Rooker for five years, which might be their best move of the offseason when all is said and done.
Angels
*No acquisitions, but avoided arbitration with a lot of current players.
The Estimated Wins
So, what’s it all mean?
For the newly arrived reader, I’m not projecting 60 wins for the Rangers or 48 for the Angels, though both would be perfectly fine with me.
This should be viewed more as “relative strength” or “order of finish” more than an exact number of wins.
How do we get there? Using the player’s 2024 fWAR and each team’s 2024 average fWAR per win we come up with estimated wins as things stand today.
Each team’s 2024 fWAR per win:
Astros: .46
Mariners: .50
Athletics: .48
Rangers: .54
Angels: .53
That gives us estimated wins based on the current projected roster.
The Mariners made the biggest leap since our last report (+1.0 fWAR) and are closing in on the Astros in total expected fWAR.
However, the Astros have been more efficient in wins per fWAR and the lead is at an estimated 7.7.
The AL West: Astros, Mariners and…
The Astros and Mariners are still the teams to beat in the AL West, but the Rangers are making moves and improving their bullpen.
So much so that Jim Bowden of The Athletic has the Rangers winning the AL West.
That’s overstated, at least at this point, as Texas needed career years from several players in 2023 to squeeze out 90 wins and then came crashing back to earth in 2024.
I question the Rangers projected rotation which includes Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle and Cody Bradford, not to mention a bullpen that lacks a top-end closer.
With around $15,000,000 to play with the Mariners have some room and would still like to add a first baseman or reunite with Justin Turner. Still, there is no denying Seattle’s rotation is the envy of the division and makes them a perennial contender.
As always, thanks for reading.