Chapter 8: How The West Was Won - Bench
With Mauricio Dubon penciled in at 2nd base, a weak bench gets weaker
Not all the ramifications of Jose Altuve moving to left field will be seen on the field when the season starts next week.
Over at Fangraphs, the Altuve move prompted a move of Mauricio Dubon from the bench to the starting second baseman.
Starting will surely be a loose term, as Altuve, Dubon and whoever becomes the bench infielder, Luis Guillorme currently, all will see time at the position.
In one sense, it’s semantics. In the big picture, the Astros are credited with Dubon’s projected 1.1 fWAR whether he starts or even plays second at all.
The point remains, however, that having Dubon in the lineup makes an already weak bench that much weaker.
The weakest in the American League West in my opinion, with Victor Caratini, Jon Singleton and Ben Gamel joining Guillorme as backups.
Caratini was excellent off the bench last season, but is due for some regression this season, so it may even be weaker than anticipated.
Singleton is limited, Guillorme a defense-first player and Gamel “just a guy”.
The Astros would likely not be comfortable with any of them long-term if the need arose, as they would likely be with Dubon (depending on the position of need) and that’s part of the point.
Dubon is so valuable exactly because of his versatility and those dynamics change if he’s starting at second base (or any position) for any length of time.
For me, it’s not necessarily having the lowest projected bench fWAR.
It’s not necessarily that they have a weaker bench than the Athletics and Angels.
It’s the disparity between the Astros and the two teams that will challenge Houston for the AL West.
The Astros are 2.9 fWAR behind the Rangers and 1.3 fWAR behind the Mariners, their two biggest rivals for the division title.
In a division that is expected to be fingernail-biting close in 2025 that could make the difference.
CSJ Ranking of AL West Benches
Rangers
Mariners
Athletics
Angels
Astros
Thanks for reading!