Decisions, Decisions: First Base
Addition by subtraction is not enough
Jon Singleton had the best season of his Major League career in 2024 and it was a feel-good story for the Astros, at least to a degree.
The fact that Houston had to rely on a now career .198 hitter for 88 starts at first base is an indictment of Jose Abreu and the front office/ownership.
I don’t blame the front office for signing Abreu as much as I blame them for not realizing last offseason that there was a fair chance that more would be needed in 2024.
At least they didn’t wait till the end of the season to bail on Abreu and, in what proved to be addition by subtraction, remove him from the roster.
Houston finished 28th in WAR at first base (-3.0) and 26th in OPS at the position.
It’s an area that needs improvement, but the gap may not be as big as you think.
The average 2024 WAR for first basemen across the league was -0.7. That’s right, negative 0.7.
The Numbers
Singleton hit 36 points above his career average and finished with an OPS+ of 103, more than Astros fans could have hoped.
He didn’t chase (88th percentile) and took walks (91st percentile), both of which the Astros struggled with in 2024.
On the flip side, Singleton’s not good on the bases (base running value 3rd percentile) or defensively (13th percentile and -7 OAA) at first, a place I consider a premium defensive position.
The Astros asked Singleton to do something he’s not equipped to do, be a productive, everyday first baseman in the Major Leagues.
Singleton did fine against RHPs, but was horrendous against LHPs.
The Astros faced left-handers 27.5% of the time in 2024, with Singleton getting 82 plate appearances vs. LHPs.
Beyond The Numbers
Singleton fits in the clubhouse and it feels like everyone wants him to succeed, fans included, and his salary ($800,000) is reasonable though he’s due for a raise.
But is that enough to keep him rostered?
Options at First Base
There don’t appear to be viable internal options, despite 9 different players (including Abreu) seeing time at first base.
Victor Caratini (33 career starts) and Yainer Diaz (17 career starts) are options, but their defense at the position is a liability and also means you need to consider keeping a third catcher.
Mauricio Dubon is better defensively, but has less experience than the previous two (11 starts), only had an 80 OPS+ against LHPs in 2024 and playing first would take away from the utility role in which he thrives.
Neither Zach Dezenzo (25 MiLB starts) or Shay Whitcomb (6 AAA starts) has any appreciable experience at first.
Free agent options include Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Josh Bell, Rowdy Tellez, Christian Walker, Ryan O'Hearn and Carlos Santana.
Proposed Solution
One option is a platoon, having Singleton face as few LHPs as possible and substitute defensively late.
I’m estimating that the Astros will need to cover 180 or so plate appearances from the position against LHPs and while Caratini, Diaz and Dubon could cover some, that’s not optimal due to the points above.
Conclusion: Sign a Lower-End Free Agent to Platoon, or…
Some of the soon-to-be free agents aren’t realistic or financially prudent.
One option that could be available is 38-year-old Carlos Santana (or someone similar).
I don’t often advocate signing a free agent approaching 40, but Santana had a reasonable salary ($5,500,000), is a good fielding (93rd percentile fielding run value) switch hitter with a career slash of .276/.374/.452 and a 111 OPS+ against lefties.
I would also argue that someone like this would strengthen the bench that was subpar (and unusable in some instances) in 2024.
Josh Bell is younger and even cheaper (theoretically, at least), but isn’t as good defensively and has a mediocre 95 career OPS+ vs LHPs.
As we learned ad nauseam last spring, Singleton is out of options, but in the cold, hard world of MLB, there is an option to move on completely and put Singleton’s $800,000 salary towards someone like Santana (or Bell, etc) and not use two roster spots at first base that a platoon would entail.
The Astros seemed reluctant to do so last spring, perhaps admitting internally that Abreu was washed, but it’s a move that needs to at least be considered as the team looks to improve at the position, both offensively and defensively.
One thing is clear. The status quo is not acceptable.