Decisions, Decisions: Yusei Kikuchi
The Astros caught lightning in a bottle, but it's expensive
I’d like to think I was smart for being all in on the trade that sent half of Sugar Land to Toronto in return for Yusei Kikuchi.
The truth is I didn’t expect the Astros to win 9 of 10 games that Kikuchi started for Houston, or for Kikuchi to finish 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA across 60 innings.
All I knew was that he was better than Jake Bloss and if he could go .500 the Astros had a better chance to win the AL West than they would have with Bloss on the mound.
Kikuchi pitched so well that I’m considering a “Kikuchi Start” stat for next season.
What’s a Kikuchi start? The working definition is 5.1 or 5.2 IP, and 2 or fewer earned runs.
It’s that middle ground where you don’t qualify for a quality start, but you pitched well.
Yusei had 4 of these in his 10 starts and another of 5.2 IP where he gave up 3 earned runs and the Astros won all five of these games.
In short, he pitched better than he ever has or is ever likely to going forward.
The Numbers
Kikuchi has been a slightly below-average to-average pitcher as a Major Leaguer, which makes the opposition to his acquisition and delivery of three prospects completely understandable.
He pitched out of his mind once he arrived in Houston, crushing his career numbers in nearly every category.
Can Kikuchi replicate the 10 starts as an Astro or will he fall back to his career norms in 2025?
Someone will find out and I’m betting it’s not Houston.
Beyond The Numbers
Kikuchi saved the Astros season by giving the team a chance to win in every single outing. No blow-ups, blastings, or “just didn’t have it” in the middle of a pennant race.
With Kikuchi on the mound the team beat: Tampa twice, Texas, Boston, Baltimore, Kansas City, Arizona and the Angels twice.
When he took the mound on August 2nd for the first time as an Astro, Houston was tied for first.
When he took the mound the final time, they were up 4 games.
It wasn’t all him obviously, but he played a huge role.
Options If Kikuchi Doesn’t Return
Very similar to Verlander, the Astros are in a decent position if Kikuchi doesn’t return with Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia (assuming health) and Spencer Arrighetti, along with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy set to return from injuries at some point, perhaps July.
What Would An Offer to Kikuchi Look Like?
Kikuchi will turn 34 on June 17th and it’s believed he’s looking for a 4 or 5-year deal approaching $100,000,000.
That’s not happening in Houston.
Kikuchi has been very reliable, starting 32 times in each of the last three seasons, including this season split between Houston and Toronto. Every fifth day he’s been out there.
That said, 10 very good starts should not dwarf 144 largely mediocre ones.
It’ll be interesting to see who signs him, for how long and how much and what the results are.
Conclusion: Thanks for the Memories
The Astros caught lightning in a bottle with this trade and while it’s difficult to give up three prospects for 10 starts, there’s a real question as to whether the Astros make the postseason without him and no one knew it would end in the Wild Card round when the deal was made.
Time will tell if Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss or Will Wagner are solid Major Leaguers.
Those are the chances you take in a pennant race and given the totality of the situation, I’d do it again.
That said, risking $100,000,000 on a 33/34-year-old pitcher who’s been mediocre over his career is not how the Astros operate.
There may or may not be something to the notion the Astros fixed or tweaked something with Kikuchi’s pitch selection that at least partially aided his lighting in a bottle, but we darn sure should not gamble a $100 mill to find out