Final 2024 Astros Projections

Launch -1

Below are my best estimates for the 2024 season, using my own algorithm.

As with any projection set, they’re not going to be perfect and in some cases will be way off.

That’s the nature of variance in baseball.

Others will be closer, some very close, but the overall, big-picture goal is to stay sane amid hot streaks or extended slumps.

Projections for Astros Batters

Notes:

1. Many will doubt the Abreu projections and in truth, I’m a bit leery, too, at least on the average side. That said, Baseball-Reference projects .261, so .264 is not crazy.

2. I included Julks, Kessinger and Singleton, when only 2 of 3 will likely be on the opening-day roster.

3. Altuve’s games played look low, but was impacted by last season’s injury and he is a year older.

4. Projecting Meyers to be what he has been.

5. I’ve mentioned this ad nauseam, but I don’t get keeping Singleton simply because he is out of options (if that happens). They mentioned that again on the broadcast last night.

   I’ve beat this to death so I’ll leave it alone after this, but that’s a hell of a way to make roster decisions.

   I hope Singleton proves me wrong.

6. I doubt Dubon gets 363 at-bats. If he does, a starter is injured for a length of time.

   However, I’m intrigued as to how often he plays and where under the new management.

   He’s a valuable utility man, but even last year when the PR machine was out in full force his OPS+ ended up at 97. For his career, it’s 87.

   This is a case where I go back to the Aaron Schatz quote: “Analytics see every play, our memories only see highlights.”

   Projections for Astros Pitchers

   

Notes:

1. The Astros will not have 80 saves. Baseball-Reference has Hader for 22 and Pressly with 20, which is fun to ponder, but won’t happen barring something unforeseen.

   The numbers will adjust as the season moves forward.

2. Montero has some work to do to get to these numbers.

3. Assumed Mushinski and Sousa, make the team, as does Fangraphs.

4. Verlander’s health is a big question mark for me, though it was reported he hit 95 yesterday.

5. Bielak is a replacement-level starter, which the Astros may need at some point, but he’s a valuable, multiple-inning possibility out of the bullpen.

6. Not listed is Tayler Scott, who threw pretty well in the final game against Sugar Land. My guess is if he doesn’t make the team out of the spring, he’ll be up at some point during the season.

7. Blanco has been almost perfect this spring, but remember the average batter he faced was between AA and AAA per Baseball-Reference.

   I’m cautiously optimistic and that’s reflected in the projections above (which I think are low) and the ones online, but I’m generally a “Gotta see it before I project it” kind of guy.

   By The (Fangraphs) Numbers

   Bookmarking some Fangraphs numbers for the season:

   Record: 90-72

   Place: 1st, AL West

   Run Differential: +93, 5.05 to 4.47

   Win Division: 61.8%

   Clinch Bye: 52.5%

   Clinch Wild Card: 24.1%

   Make Playoffs: 85.9%

   Win World Series: 11.0%

   As an aside, PECOTA is much more bullish on the Astros, projecting 95 wins, an 838 to 705 run differential (+133), 77.2% chance of winning the West, 17.1% chance of making the Wild Card, 94.3% chance to make the playoffs, 85.1% chance to make the Divisional Round and a 12.8% chance of winning the World Series.

   Coming Soon(ish)

   Earlier in the month I laid out what I wanted to provide on this site in 2024.

   Some of those will be available as soon as Friday while some others will develop over the first month of the season.

   There will be days I miss. The kid and I are going to the Sugar Land-Round Rock game on Saturday, we’ll be in the Crawford Boxes for the Brewers in May and Oakland, yes Oakland, for a game in July.

   Other life events will impede posting, though hopefully no broken bones like last year.

   Every day that I am able, there’ll be information here, including off days where Parker plans to contribute.

   ---

   If you have a chance to check out the latest “True Tales from The Big Leagues" episode, I’d be grateful. This was a fun one and a story I’m guessing you haven’t heard.

   Rejoice the season is upon us.

Thanks for reading!