The Slow Decline of the Astros
The Astros are still "good", but evidence of a downward slope is damning
Before the 2024 postseason, I felt the playoffs would be National League heavy and three National League teams “stood out” as those with the best chance to win the World Series.
That was largely how it played out as the Dodgers and Padres battled it out and Los Angeles ultimately crushed the Yankees to take the crown.
While it certainly matters who’s hot in October, patterns emerge as the game and thinking about it shift and change from season to season.
Numbers that were important in 2024, were not as important in 2021 and 2022 and vice versa.
Recently, offense has taken the forefront and teams are getting by on less and less pitching, likely because there is less and less pitching available, which of course has ramifications for the near future.
Hitting the ball and scoring runs is the name of the game and just try and figure out a way to piecemeal a pitching staff together as the Dodgers did (and the Tigers to a lesser degree).
Below are the MLB ranks for the respective categories of the last 6 World Series winners.
The decision to stop after 6 years was mine and it’s arbitrary.
The goal is to determine what wins now, not what won in the distant past.
Below is what the Astros have done in the last four seasons and the first thing that jumps out is that the 2024 Astros were 11th in runs scored when no other World Series winner in at least the last 6 seasons was lower than 8th (2022 Astros, coincidentally) and the average was 5th.
There’s also that bugaboo I’ve mentioned multiple times - walks given up - a category Houston was one of the worst in the Major Leagues at last season.
The last 6 Champs have averaged ranking 11.2, while the Astros came in 25th in the league in BB/9 IP.
In three of the four seasons tracked, the Astros BB/9 were significantly worse than the Champions average, and the year the Astros were in the top 10, they won the World Series.
Coincidence? Probably not.
Not scoring enough and walking too many batters is not easily overcome, especially in the playoffs and Houston didn’t have the offense to overcome these flaws.
Does Hitting or Pitching Win World Series?
These numbers are ones I selected and aren’t absolutes, but rather guides and generalizations.
The Dodgers set three new highs (in a bad way) on the mound this past season and still cruised in October, because they dominated at the plate.
A couple of years earlier the Dodgers (2020) and Astros (2022) had dominant pitching, but the last two World Championships have relied on hitting.
Is that the new trend?
Ask me next October/November and I might have an answer.
Either hitting or pitching can win, but a team dominant in one or the other has a better chance of winning the big trophy.
Even then, the 2021 Braves are an exception - a team that dominated in neither category but got hot in October and ended up as World Champions.
The Slow Decline in Houston
As an Astros fan, the charts above confirm the slow decline of the Astros that we’ve all seen over the last four seasons.
From an elite offense in 2021 to a slightly above-average one in 2024.
From an elite pitching staff in 2022, to one struggling to throw strikes in 2024.
They’re not terrible, but they’re also not what they once were.
Thanks for reading!