Getting Thin
No, this isn't about diet and exercise
It was just last week that I wrote about roster construction and linked to an article that suggested the Astros could use a six-man rotation for stretches this season.
What a luxury in a day and age where a lot of teams don’t have six arms that could give them starts consistently, I thought.
That lasted about a day when the Jose Urquidy news popped up.
Suddenly, with JV on the IL to begin the season, Urquidy likely in the same boat for who knows how long, and J.P. France nursing shoulder inflammation, things have taken a turn.
Most concerning about Urquidy is this could be worse than missing a few starts.
Forearm strains are a common symptom of ligament damage and often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, but not always. Atlanta Braves lefty Max Fried missed three months with a forearm strain last season but returned late in the year and pitched well, and thus far has avoided going under the knife. The Astros will hope Urquidy can do the same.
All of this leaves the Astros with a rotation of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, France and a lot of questions.
Valdez struggled at times last season, but still recorded 20 quality starts, Javier wasn’t the same guy as in 2022 and Brown and France cratered late in their rookie seasons as the innings piled up.
Suddenly, what seemed like an embarrassment of riches became razor thin.
To be fair, Valdez is still of ace quality in most starts, Javier could return closer to 2022 form and Brown and France have reset.
Waiting in the wings are Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti.
The greatest ability is availability for these three.
Bielak is a replacement-level pitcher in my mind, but Blanco and Arrighetti have higher upsides, though they also have lower floors.
Blanco appeared in 17 games with 7 starts last season, going 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA (5.99 FIP, 5.13 xERA) over 52.0 innings.
Concerns about Blanco are pretty obvious: 4.8 BB and 2.1 HR per 9 IP in 2023, though you could also argue hitters crushing his four-seamer for a .343 average and .714 slug screams danger.
For what it’s worth, Blanco has had an excellent spring, going 3-0 in 4 starts, covering 11.2 innings in which he’s given up only 4 hits, while striking out 13 and walking 4, recording an ERA of 0.00.
You can’t ask for much more than Blanco has done this spring, but the “for what it’s worth” part of my statement is there for a reason because according to Baseball-Reference the average quality of batters Blanco has faced is AA, as in Double-A.
Of course, the Astros are reportedly pursuing outside options and that’s a good thing because if we learned anything from Brown and France’s dog days of summer in 2023, it’s that we shouldn’t expect younger pitchers like Blanco and Arrighetti, no matter how good, to make it through the stress of 150 Major League innings.
Both Blanco and Arrighetti threw around 125 innings across multiple stops last season and Bielak had 135 at Sugar Land and Houston combined.
Less than two weeks from the beginning of the regular season those outside options are becoming more limited with Blake Snell agreeing with the Giants recently.
That leaves Jordan Montgomery and Michael Lorenzen as the two biggest names left, but maybe the Astros have someone else in mind.
Or, perhaps a combination of Bielak, Blanco and Arrighetti can fill those starter innings, but it feels like a stretch to believe all of the answers are internal, especially if Urquidy is out for an extended period, which is what it feels like to me.
You can never have too much pitching they say.
This time they were right.
Thank you for reading!