In Defense of: Jeremy Pena
Pena's been average on offense, but the bigger concern are the defensive trends
Back in 2022 Astros fans were rightly concerned about losing Carlos Correa to free agency after the home-grown shortstop wrapped up a .279/.366/485 slash line with 26 home runs, 92 RBI, a 131 OPS+ and 7.2 bWAR.
In stepped untested rookie Jeremy Pena and though he didn’t approach Correa’s numbers, his were not bad - .253/.289/.426, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 102 OPS+, 5.0 bWAR - plus he won a Gold Glove along with the ALCS and World Series MVPs as the Astros won it all.
That was the high point for Pena, as his well documented power outage came during the summer of 2023 despite an increase in average and OBP.
The OPS+ dipped to 95 in 2023, obviously below the MLB average.
This past season found Pena, increasing his average slightly, as he found a middle ground at the plate between his rookie season and second, finishing with exactly a 100 OPS+.
The Numbers
Pena’s Gold Glove of 2022 came in a season when his Outs Above Average was only 11th in MLB for shortstops, but fourth in the American League (for shortstops).
The last two seasons have not gone as well in the field.
Pena’s Outs Above Average dropped to 2 in 2023 and then -2 in 2024, which was 20 outs below the best (Dansby Swanson) and 30th of 40 rated shortstops per Baseball Savant.
Over his three seasons, Pena’s arm strength has declined steadily, too and now sits in the 25th percentile, after being in the 44th and 37th percentile respectively in his first two seasons.
Conclusion: Average bat, declining defense
While Pena has steadily improved his average, some of the other offensive numbers have been more volatile, with his chase rate and BB% creeping to near rookie levels last season.
The only batting stats above the 62nd percentile on Baseball Savant is average and K%, while others such as chase% and BB% are woefully low.
Pena is the literal definition of average on offense, as his 100 OPS+ of 2024 and 99 career OPS+ for 1,700 at-bats indicate.
By the advance metrics there’s been a steady defensive decline which is concerning for someone who is just 27 years old.
Pena’s OAA for 2024 was in the 29th percentile, with arm strength in the 25th, as previously mentioned, and that Gold Glove seems a lifetime ago.
While, average offensively is not Correa, it’s also not terrible.
The real question is was 2022 a defensive mirage or is what we’re seeing now what Pena is defensively?
A third consecutive season of declining defense would likely cement the answer in my mind.
Pena has three more seasons until he hits free agency at 30 years old prior to the 2028 season.
Thank you for reading!
