In Defense of: Kyle Tucker
Smashing at the plate, but what's up with the D?
2024 started off so well for Kyle Tucker. By June 3rd he was slashing .266/.395/.584, had hit his 19th home run and driven in his 40th run in game 59 just a couple days prior.
That would be his last home run and RBI until mid-September as Tucker headed to the injured list for more than three months.
Tucker’s September return was excellent (.365/.453/1.041) and he finished the season at 289/.408./.585, just missing a 1.000 OPS.
Those numbers represent the highest OBP, Slug and OPS of Tucker’s career, not to mention an OPS+ 34 points higher than he’d ever recorded at 181. (He missed a career high batting average by 6 points)
It was Tucker’s best offensive year and it’s a shame it was shortened by injury.
The weird part is Tucker’s defense hasn’t had the same trajectory as his offense and, in fact, in some ways been polar opposite.
Not so much this past season, as the extended IL trip meant he didn’t qualify in some areas, but from 2022 to 2023 his defense fell off noticeably both in the eyeball test and in the advanced metrics.
The Numbers
Perhaps our expectations were set too high with Tucker’s elite defense of 2022 when he was in the 89th percentile for Outs Above Average, 97th in arm value and 77th in arm strength.
Those numbers tumbled in 2023, and the arm value and strength deteriorated even further in 2024 (didn’t qualify in OAA).
Memories can be selective, but I recall it looking like he wasn’t quite the defensive weapon in 2023, but these numbers are concerning.
Not necessarily that he dropped year over year, but the sheer size of the drop is the concern.
Conclusion: Prime of Career at Plate, We’ll See on D
Tucker, who will turn 28 on January 17, is in the prime of his career at the plate, hitting like we always thought he would, including .310/.468/.500 with RISP in 2024.
I say this frequently, but I’m not sure exactly what to make of the defensive numbers.
There was a noticeable drop from 2022 to 2023, both with my eyes and the advanced numbers, and a further drop in 2024.
I’m a data guy. I believe in data in most instances (depending on how it’s used), so this is a mystery to me as are wild swings in defensive metrics from year to year.
I don’t have any data to justify an expected improvement, rather I have trends that suggest exactly the opposite should be expected.
Tucker’s never dazzled athletically, but he gets the job done most of the time.
As the saying goes, hope is not a plan, so I’m pessimistic that we’ll see anything close to 2022 on defense.
Thank you for reading!
