In Defense of: Yainer Diaz
Haters gonna hate, but dude rakes
More than three years after it’s consummation, the trade that brought Phil Maton and a little known Class A catcher to the Astros on July 30th, 2021 should be classified as a lopsided deal in the Astros favor.
The last I saw Straw was in Triple-A, but Maton helped the Astros win that season and then the World Series a year later.
Also, that Class A catcher grew up to be the Astros starting catcher for 141 games over the last two seasons, including 99 in 2024.
Some fans, and perhaps players, miss Martin Maldonado, but Diaz has been very good at the plate, if defensively questionable at times.
The Numbers
In his 1,005 plate appearances as an Astro, Diaz has slashed .291/.317/.476 with 39 HR and 145 RBI and a 121 OPS+.
Good offensive numbers for most positions, outstanding offensive numbers for a catcher.
I’d be remiss not to mention the slight dips in average and OBP from 2023 to 2024 as Diaz transitioned to being the (mostly) full-time catcher.
There was also a huge dip in power, from 23 HR in 355 at bats in 2023 to 16 in 585 at bats in 2024, and a corresponding decrease in slug from .538 to .441.
Diaz hasn’t hit much in the postseason, with his 2 for 7 mark this year leaving his career postseason slash line at .143/.182/.143 across 21 at-bats.
One thing Diaz excelled at was hitting with runners in scoring position, slashing .346/.353/.509 and driving in 71 runs in 159 at-bats.
Defensively, Diaz regressed in 2024, with all four of the catcher defensive metrics tracked - Blocks Above Average (BAA), Caught Stealing Above Average (CSAA), Framing and Pop Time - on Baseball Savant trending downward, by a lot in the case of the latter two.
While that’s concerning, I would have never believed Diaz was in the 82nd and 76th percentile in any defensive metric if I only listened to a certain segment of Astro fans.
In some ways the numbers above are incongruous. Diaz is in the 76th percentile in caught stealing, but only the 38th percentile in pop-time?
Strange, but perhaps only slow runners have attempted to steal on him.
I will also say this about pop times: They are measured in 100ths of a second and the difference between No. 1 (J.T. Realmuto) and No. 51 (Diaz) is 0.12 seconds.
As with most defensive metrics, especially the advanced kind, these numbers are a bit nebulous to me for the most part, but other than eyeballing it, it’s what we have.
Diaz also started 11 games at first base, a position some see him eventually shifting to.
That’s a tiny sample size, but the results were not good as he totaled a -3 Outs Above Average last season.
This matches with the eyeball test that told me he’s not a natural, doesn’t appear flexible and generally looked uncomfortable at the position.
Conclusion: Dude Rakes, but is a Defensive Question Mark
Diaz is a plus hitter for his position, but the loss in power is a mystery.
There has been minor improvement year over year in Chase, Whiff, K and BB percentages, but the percentiles are still pitifully bad in three of four, with K% being the only one above average (in a good way).
It’s difficult to ask more offensively from a catcher than Diaz has provided, especially considering his numbers with RISP noted above.
My sense is much like with Jose Altuve, you take the bad (Chase% and BB%) with the good, but I’ll be interested to see if his numbers continue the (slight) upward trend.
On the defensive side, the regression in framing is concerning for a young catcher as you would naturally think improvement would happen with more experience and coaching.
If Diaz is going to reverse the negative defensive trends, it would seem that 2025 would be the season to do so, making his numbers something to watch in the coming season.
If this is who he is and will be defensively, at what point, if any, is that untenable for a skilled offensive player, especially when and if his offense trends downward?
Diaz won’t be 27 until next September, will hit arbitration in 2026 and be eligible for free agency in 2029.
Thank you for reading!
