Introducing CSJ Win Shares
Making WAR make sense
If you read my post earlier this week on the cost of losing Alex Bregman to the Astros, you probably understand my frustration with WAR, which doesn’t actually represent what the metric’s name says.
To wit, in 2024 the Astros finished with a total fWAR of 40.5, but finished 7 games above replacement (88 wins - 81 on average).
Also, it turns out that my frustration is not with the WAR stat, but rather the name and how it’s expressed.
WAR doesn’t actually mean that Yordan contributed 5.3 wins above replacement in 2024, for example.
It’s just a number.
But there is a way to estimate how many wins Alvarez, and everyone else, added (or subtracted) to the Astros total of 88 wins.
We know the Astros totaled 40.5 fWAR and 88 wins, meaning the team created .46 net fWAR on average for every win.
Using these numbers and a player’s fWAR we can then estimate how many of the 88 wins he was responsible for, net.
Let’s use Yordan as an example. A 5.3 fWAR/.46 net fWAR per win gives us a total of 11.5 CSJ Win Shares1 for Yordan in 2024.
Two things I love about this.
First, the total win shares add up to 88. The exact number of wins the Astros accumulated in the season.
There is no “above replacement”. Simply, how many wins did this player contribute?
Secondly, the .46 will fluctuate over seasons and even within a season depending on how much fWAR a team accumulates and how many wins they have at the time of calculation.
The Astros average fWAR per win has fluctuated between .54 to .48 to .46 over the last three seasons.
Finally, there is no magic potion behind the curtain: Players with higher fWAR will always have more CSJ Win Shares as it’s a simple calculation.
Here are the results for 2024:
I realize in a way it’s capturing the same thing as fWAR: Who contributed more and by how much.
But my brain works differently than others and I want to know, in terms of wins, what does 5.3 fWAR mean.
For the 2024 Astros, it means Yordan contributed 11.5 wins.
As an aside, Tucker’s numbers are outrageous for a guy who missed 3+ months.
Grae Kessinger is listed twice, once as a batter/fielder (B/F) and once as a pitcher (P).
This confirms several things we already knew, including how bad Montero and J. Abreu were.
If you are so inclined, please vote in the poll and let me know if this is something you are interested in during the season.
Thanks for reading!
Should not be confused with Bill James Win Shares, or any other Win Shares stat.