Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski
Kyle Tucker Traded to Chicago Cubs
By now you’ve heard the news of Kyle Tucker being traded to the Chicago Cubs for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and minor leaguer Cam Smith.
Paredes can play third or first, is a candidate to pepper the Crawford Boxes with home runs and is under club control for the next three seasons.
The Astros were also able to get a versatile, multi-inning pitcher in Wesneski, who happens to be a Houston native (Cy-Fair HS and Sam Houston State), along with a prospect in Cam Smith who was the No. 14 overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft.
That means the Astros farm system now includes two of the top 28 picks from 2024, as Houston selected Walker Janek No. 28 last summer.
Isaac Paredes
Paredes was traded to Chicago last July 28, for Ty Johnson (minors), Hunter Bigge and Christopher Morel.
There was a dip in his wRC+ from 2023 to 2024 overall, but don’t be fooled.
He left Tampa at the end of July with a wRC+ of 132 and had a 129 career wRC+ with the Rays.
Overall in his career Paredes owns a career slash of .232/.333/.422, 117 wRC+ and 9.7 fWAR, which includes his time with the Cubs and a stint with Detroit in 2020-2021.
For his career, Paredes has walked 11% of the time and his 11.9% walk rate in 2024 was in the top 7% of MLB.
Paredes feasted on the sinker in 2024, hitting .305 and slugging .526 on the pitch.
In 2023, it was the 4-seam fastball that Paredes hit well, finishing the season at .278 with a .556 slug.
Paredes would be a major upgrade over Jon Singleton against LHPs if he ends up at first base.
Paredes slashed .295/.377/.489 against lefties last season and has hit southpaws at a .274/.366/.456 slash over his career.
Versatility is a strong suit for Paredes as he has played all five infield positions at the MLB level, with most starts coming at third (311), second (53) and first (40).
He started 13 games at first for Tampa in 2024 (1 error).
Hayden Wesneski
Dana Brown has indicated that Wesneski will be a starter with the Astros, perhaps answering my question from earlier in the week about the Astros fifth starter.
Wesneski throws mainly a sweeper (41%) and a 94.6 MPH 4-seamer 36%), with opponents batting just .174 on the sweeper last season.
While Wesneski gave up similar averages against RHBs and LHBs in 2024, the righties hit for more power.
The opposite is true for his career, as right-handed batters have hit him 39 points below lefties and slugged 90 points lower.
Wesneski started 22 times in his 68 MLB appearances, including 7 in 2024.
Cam Smith
Smith, 21, is a 6’3, 224-pound third baseman/left fielder (at least that’s how he’s listed) who rocketed through three levels in 2024 in five weeks.
In just 32 games he slashed .313/.396/.609 with 7 homers and 24 RBI in 115 at-bats, playing third (24 games) and DH (8 games).
He has the star potential and becomes the highest-ranked prospect in the Astros organization.
Summary
This has the potential to be a very good trade for the Astros, though it may not feel like it in the moment.
Trading Tucker leaves the Astros with around 9 games (at 0.46 fWAR per win) to replace, but Tucker’s 4.2 fWAR from last season is low due to his injury.
Previous season’s fWAR for Tucker were 5.0, 4.9 and 5.0, so it’s likely in that range and closer to 11 wins that need to be recovered, just to break even.
The Astros get a total of 3.6 fWAR with Paredes (3.4) and Wesneski (0.2), about 7.8 wins.
Sure enough, plugging these players into the roster and removing Tucker results in a drop from 80.4 wins to 78.7.
If the Astros can retain Bregman, the odds of which remain murky, Paredes can platoon with Singleton at first.
It would also make the Astros the clear-cut favorite in the AL West, at least for the time being.
If Bregman moves on, Paredes likely plays third, but that leaves a hole at first.
Wesneski fills a spot in the rotation, though Fangraphs sees him as a minor leaguer.
If he continues to develop, Smith could be the Astros long-term third baseman.
Why I Like the Trade
It’s a foregone conclusion that Tucker was headed to free agency and out of the Astros financial stratosphere after the 2025 season, so this trade allows them to get:
A starting corner infielder with pull-side power to reach Crawford Boxes with ease.
A starting pitcher.
The new highest-rated prospect in your system.
Short-term it hurts. As much as I love Chas, he’s no Kyle Tucker.
On the other hand, there’s no reason to delay the inevitable and lose a Superstar for a draft pick.
The Astros addressed some current needs, gained a top-100 prospect and got an immediate return for their investment in Tucker instead of waiting for a 2026 draft pick to MAYBE develop, make it to MLB and be productive by when? 2029 at the earliest? No thanks.
Given the totality of the situation, it was the right move.
Whether that return is satisfactory, we won’t know until some point in the future.
As always, thanks for reading!