King of the Hill: Throws Strikes and Gets Outs

Astros blast their way to 5 runs in win over the Twins in series opener

Apr 04, 2025

Everyone wants to be “right” or at least “first”.

I’ve heard some version of the phrase “first of the entire season” or “all season long” on TV, podcasts, radio and in person about the 2025 MLB season.

Usually from “professionals”, or at least semi-professionals.

“Christian Walker hit his first home run of the “entire season” or “the Astros scored 5 runs for the first time all season long”.

Technically correct, but patently ridiculous, misleading and hyperbolic.

The highly technical chart below is a reminder of where we are in the season.

People.

We are ~1/23rd of the way through the season, or 4.3%.

I have no idea of Christian Walker is Jose Abreu Squared (I doubt it) or if Cam Smith is a bust (probably needs some “seasoning”, but I doubt he’s a bust, depending on your definition).

Neither do you.

Astro fans, and MLB fans in general, have learned very little from last season, though I don’t recommend another 12-24 start.

Updated Projections

Again, mostly preseason stuff with 4.3% of 2025 blended in, except for Smith, Gusto and guys like Dezenzo.

There is some downward movement with the guys on the Extreme Struggle Bus, like Yainer and Yordan.

Astros Expected Wins

Roller coaster of not much love, but again, early.

Scoring runs and winning games will improve this look.

Quality At-Bat Numbers

The team average is 42.6%, so McCormick and above are higher than the team average and Altuve and below are below team average.

What counts as a quality at-bat? Different people have different definitions.

Some of the things I look for:

Hard Hit >= 95 MPH

Base Hit

HBP

SAC

Advancing a runner

8+ pitch at-bat

RBI

Pitches per Plate Appearance

Team average is 3.90, league average is 3.92

Base Running

The Astros were terrible at this last season and the hope was Tony Perezchica would help here (and with infield defense).

Caught stealing is detrimental to your BsR.

Detailed Pitching Stats

It’s taken some work to get it set up and I may adjust along the way, but this kind of thing offers something not typically seen.

QS = Quality Starts

KS = Kikuchi Starts

EI = Easy Inning, which is defined as 10 or less pitches

SDI = Shut Down Inning, which is holding a team scoreless the half inning after the Astros score.

PSDI = Number of Potential Shut Down Innings.

IO = Retired side In Order.

Excellent starting pitching on the whole through 7 starts, with 4 quality starts.

Fangraphs uses version 2 of the Game Score metric and that’s what I’ll be using here.

Of note is that these change in retrospect, based on the constant used in the formula which is designed to keep the league average at 50.

I will update periodically.

On to the bullpen.

Still working through the kinks here.

All Bryan King does is throw strikes and get outs.

A quick reminder these are “Opportunities”, not appearances. King has four appearances, but in one of them he didn’t have an opportunity for an Easy Inning since he faced just one batter.

The bullpen has been solid, especially King, Okert and Gusto.

Yes, Gusto gave up a bomb, but if he finishes the season anywhere close to a 2.25 ERA it’s a huge win.