Looking at the Astros Current Top 5 Prospects
The Astros season to date has the fans looking at the future
With the Astros 2024 season looking more and more bleak as the season goes on, there hasn’t been a better time to go over the future, as the present looks straight-up terrible and apathetic at times.
While the Astros have one of the lowest-ranked farm systems in baseball, that doesn’t mean they don’t have some good minor-league players.
Today we will talk about their Top 5 prospects (according to MLB.com).
Without further ado, let’s get started.
Jacob Melton OF
While the Corpus Christi Hooks have a very poor record of 22-37, Jacob Melton has not been one of their problems. Melton’s statistics have been decent. Not good, but not bad. In 32 games, he’s hit .268 with a .329 On Base Percentage and a .455 Slugging Percentage, totaling for a .784 OPS.
Melton has struggled with a wrist injury recently which is why he has played only 32 games. While Melton has not looked necessarily like a top prospect in the minors so far, looking at his college stats, it’s understandable as to why MLB.com is high on him.
He had 83 RBIs in 63 games in his junior year at Oregon State, which is a school record. Overall in that season (2022) he hit .360 with a 1.094 OPS and went on to win PAC-12 Conference Player of the Year that season.
MLB.com makes a good note that when trading for Verlander at the 2023 deadline, the Astros opted to trade outfielders Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford, meaning they could be looking at Melton as a future piece.
It’s also noted that his swing also recently underwent mechanical changes to hit the ball in the air more often. While Melton is a speedy outfielder that seems to have a positive upside offensively, he still needs to perform consistently at Double-A and Triple-A to prove he’s ready to be a major leaguer.
Luis Baez OF
After signing with the Astros for $1,300,000 in 2022, Luis Baez looks to become the next player in a long line of talented Hispanic players who’ve put on an Astros jersey.
Baez also adds to a logjam in the outfield that the Astros have seemed to consistently have for the last five years or so. He has hit very well in his early minor league career.
In the Foreign Rookie League, he hit .305 with a .903 OPS and 9 home runs in 2022. Splitting time between Rookie Ball and Single-A in 2023, his average dropped to .248, but his OPS was still strong at .838.
This year so far, Baez has hit .293 with a .813 OPS with the High- A Asheville Tourists. He’s also hit 9 home runs in 50 games which is pretty decent.
According to MLB.com, Baez was originally supposed to play center field after signing with the Astros, but he has struggled with his weight and is now not as fast as he once was. Look for him to play corner outfield positions as he rises in the baseball ranks. They end off their scouting report by saying “If he slows down any further, he risks winding up at first base.”
Brice Matthews SS
Being the 1st pick of Dana Brown’s tenure as GM, there have always been decently high expectations for Brice Matthews. He also became the first 1st Rounder from the University of Nebraska since Alex Gordon in 2005.
It's not hard to understand why Matthews was a first-round pick. He hit .359 with a 1.204 OPS and 20 home runs in the 2023 College Baseball Season.
Although he started his minor league career poorly in 2023, he had found his hitting stroke in High A so far in 2024, hitting six home runs in his first 19 games with the Tourists. He has 16 RBIs in those 19 games, almost averaging an RBI a game so far.
Matthews is really fast, possibly from his experience as a Texas High School Quarterback. While fast, Matthews’ arm is inaccurate and mediocre strength-wise. MLB.com thinks he could end up at Center Field or 2nd Base if his arm issues don’t improve.
Zach Dezenzo 3B/2B
Just like Jacob Melton, Zach Dezenzo is a record holder at the college he attended. In 2022 he tied an Ohio State record, hitting 19 home runs that year. Despite this, he lasted until the 12th round due to questions about his defense and hitting ability, where the Astros scooped him up.
Dezenzo was a heavy hitter in 2023 splitting time between High A and AA. Between those two leagues in 80 games, he hit .305, reaching base at a .383 clip with a slugging percentage at .531. This was good enough for a .914 OPS.
Unfortunately, Dezenzo’s time on the field has been limited in 2024. He missed the first two months due to a wrist injury and after a four-game stint in the Florida Complex League, he finally seems ready to rejoin the higher minor ranks.
One of the biggest issues for Dezenzo while he was on the field was strikeouts. He struck out a 29% rate during his stay in Double-A in 2023. MLB.com also says that he’s had trouble with non-fastball pitches. His arm strength and limited range could be a hindrance for him if he continues to play the 3rd base position.
Joey Loperfido OF/1B/2B
Easily one of the most hyped prospects for Houston this season, Joey Loperfido has already had a cup of coffee in the majors. In 14 games (not including his one pinch-run appearance on June 10th), he hit .333 with an .817 OPS.
Loperfido led the Pacific Coast League in home runs for a lengthy amount of time despite spending nearly three weeks in the majors. He was sent down after Jose Abreu was recalled from the minor leagues. Overall in the minors this season he has hit .272 with a .945 OPS.
While I don’t believe that Loperfido will be a career .333 hitter or should be an everyday player, the lack of effort displayed by manager Joe Espada to not even try and get him a start was questionable, to say the least.
I’m pretty confused as to why they haven’t given him a chance at 1st base at the major league level yet. Abreu and Singleton both have been very poor hitters and there’s no way for Loperfido to learn if he rides the pine.
Rant aside, Loperfido seems to have a decent to above-average major leaguer. The Astros seem to be trying to teach 1st Base to add to his versatility of playing outfield and 2nd base, while hopefully getting the Astros some 1st base help up at the majors.
If Loperfido can continue to at least hit league average or so while playing decent outfield and 1st base, then he could be a valuable member of the 2024 Astros. It’d be nice to see some power in the majors as well as 11 out of his first 13 major league hits were singles.
So what do you think about these Top 5 prospects? Let us know in the comments below or tweet your answers to us @astronomic1
Big thanks to MLB.com for their prospect rankings and scouting reports.
Good one, Parker......my 2c on the Loperfido/1B situation, and why the team is loathe to pull that trigger. I'm not as drilled down on the team lately as you certainly are (and as I used to be for The Runner Sports in the mid- to late-20teens), but from past experience with management strategy in these matters (and, I'm betting these strategies are still in place, regardless of who's in the FO), I'll take a stab. Here's how I bet they'd answer that:
They'd rather keep Joey in Sugar Land to develop. A) It'd be too much pressure to put on him to have him finish the season while the team is within relative striking distance of making the playoffs. B) After the $ whiff on Abreu, I'm guessing they want to try to "make good" a bit, and see what vet they can pick up at the trade deadline (with who knows what to offer!).
After the Abreu release, however (which seems to have happened, like, 5 minutes after you published this.......don't you HATE that?!?😉), they just MIGHT, now, call up Joey, and all of my above is, then, relegated to the garbage heap! Don' you just HATE that?
Great job, Parker....good luck, Joey, and good golly, Miss Molly!😁