More on Shutdowns and Meltdowns
Kendall Graveman wasn't the answer, but the news doesn't help
On Monday I wrote about what the loss of Hector Neris would mean to the Astros bullpen.
On Tuesday we learned Kendall Graveman underwent shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the entire 2024 season.
While I didn’t see Graveman as the answer to the problem (see below), this news sure doesn’t help.
And while we’re at it, Dana Brown believes some “internal candidates are good”, but the team is still in the market for bullpen help.
I’m still going to recommend Neris.
In Monday’s analysis, I didn’t include the numbers for the entire bullpen other than to mention the ratios of shutdowns to meltdowns for Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.
Here are all of the Astros 2023 relievers (except for Martin Maldonado and Bligh Madris) and their shutdowns and meltdowns, with the 3 free agents highlighted.
Acknowledging this is only one measure of success, Neris was far and away the leader in this category for Houston, but more than that what stands out is the mediocrity of everyone else.
Combined, the other two bullpen free agents, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton had 25 shutdowns and 20 meltdowns.
Graveman had 4 shutdowns and 4 meltdowns.
Seth Martinez was 7:5.
For whatever reason, Neris was better at this than the others.
As a reminder here’s the definition:
A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.
A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game.
That .06 in the definition is 6 percent, one way or the other.
It sounds like Neris is headed elsewhere and if that comes to fruition the question is who replaces his role in the bullpen?
I certainly could be missing someone, but given the numbers above, I don’t see a likely internal candidate and that was with Graveman in the mix.
That’s not to say someone can’t step up. After all, who among us thought J.P. France would win 11 MLB games as a rookie last season?
For me, the bullpen, especially the 2023 Neris role, is one of the bigger questions of the 2024 season for the Astros and one that’s flying under the radar.
Well, at least it was until the Graveman news broke.
Thanks for reading!