More Props: Javier and Valdez win totals

Maybe I'm wrong

Earlier this week I took a look at some home run props which was a fun thought exercise for me.

Time will tell if I’m right or wrong, but there are a few others at the Westgate that I’d like to “gamble” on.

Altuve’s injury Saturday night means this prop has been taken down and is no longer available. I leave the pre-injury analysis here because I believe it’s solid and the last paragraph serves as a caution against thinking anything is “a sure thing”.

Let’s start with one I don’t understand and I mean that in a good way.

Jose Altuve O/U 152.5 Hits

I’ve previously mentioned the line of thinking that Altuve will somehow regress in 2023, because, well, I guess it has to happen some year.

Otherwise, I don’t see the argument.

Altuve stunk in the Covid-shortened 2020 season slashing .219/.286/.344 with an OPS+ of 71.

Up until that time, he was a .315 lifetime hitter. Since that time he’s at .288/.368/.510.

He’s not the same hitter for average that he once was, but excluding that 2020 season there’s been exactly one season since 2012 in which Altuve has not surpassed the number above (149 in 2019 when he played in only 124 games).

Things we know:

• Altuve hates to miss games.

• Altuve is going to bat leadoff and therefore get more opportunities.

• Altuve is a lifetime .307 hitter.

• Altuve has averaged 143 games and 163 hits over the last two full seasons.

Finally, I’m expecting a closer race in the AL West this season and there won’t be as many days off.

My projection shows Altuve with 159 hits.

Injury is a concern, but Altuve has proven durable.

Final Answer: Over 152.5 hits

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Cristian Javier Over/Under 10.5 Wins

This one’s a little tougher in that Javier doesn’t have the long history that Altuve does.

That said, he had one realistic opportunity to reach this number (2022) and he did so notching 11 wins.

Much is expected of Javier after his new contract and, if healthy, he’ll get about 30 opportunities to be the winning pitcher in 11 games.

As we all know wins are not the greatest stat in the world and sometimes no matter how well you pitch you are handed a no-decision or perhaps even a loss.

My projection was 10 wins, but even I feel light at that number.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Javier blasted through this number, but with so little history to go on I wouldn’t bet on it.

Final Answer: Pass

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Framber Valdez Over/Under 12.5 Wins

This is a number Framber has only exceeded once, too, but the circumstances are different this season.

As opposed to prior years with the shadow of Justin Verlander looming large, Framber is the unquestioned ace of the staff and coming off a 17-win season in 31 starts and 201.1 innings.

Framber is the guy this team will rely on every fifth day.

My only real concern here is injury and can his arm hold up for another 200-inning season?

My conservative projection exceeds this number fairly comfortably.

Final Answer: Over 12.5 wins

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Where am I wrong?

Thanks for reading.