Odds, Valdez K prop, pitching matchup
The season is finally here
It’s finally opening day and we have numbers to look at for the opening series.
Over at fivethirtyeight.com, they give the Astros a better than 60% chance to win each game against the White Sox and doing a little math puts the odds of an Astros sweep at 15% and the odds of winning 3 of 4 somewhere around 22%, depending on the three you expect them to win.
Today’s game odds vary, but Astros -155 seems to be the most popular and Fangraphs gives the Astros a 60.4% chance of winning, which translates to -153.
I’m wary of that number because the two Astros have been best against Dylan Cease - Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley (see below) - are obviously not in the lineup.
Strikeout Props for Opening Series
I have constructed a model for strikeout props and this is what it looks like for the opening series.
They look low, right? Remember that while Framber Valdez averaged 26.7 batters faced per start last season, he only averaged 19.5 over his first two starts in 2022, Luis Garcia faced 16 in his first start, Urquidy 18 and Javier was in the bullpen.
The model takes into account the opponent’s strikeout rate, too.
The plan is to track these and see how the model is doing, but we’ll see how that works out long term.
The number I’m seeing for Framber for the opener is O/U 5.5, which makes it a stay-away for me.
Pitching Matchup
The Astros sure could have used Altuve and Brantley today.
Astros 162
Tomorrow a.m. will be the drop for E1 of the Astros 162 podcast, which will be an audio chronicle of the season.
If that sounds like something you’re interested in, you can listen to the trailer and subscribe at these places: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music & Audible or click below.
As always, thanks for reading.