Projections for Salazar, Julks and Blanco

Some roster surprises on eve of season

I admit to being a little bit surprised at Corey Julks and Cesar Salazar making the Astros opening day roster.

Julks is deserving, but seemed to be the odd man out as the spring was spent talking about Justin Dirden.

Julks hit 31 HR while batting .270 in Sugar Land last season, but is a .265 career MiLB hitter with 60 home runs in 2,058 at-bats, so it’ll be interesting to see if the power jumps as it has for Chas McCormick, who hit a whopping 20 MiLB homers in 968 at-bats, but has 28 in 643 MLB at-bats.

I get the move with Salazar, but it stinks for Korey Lee. Dana Brown’s quote all but said Lee was better, but he finds himself in Sugar Land instead of Houston.

Lee will be in Houston at some point this season, but he has to be disappointed.

Perhaps they’re preparing Lee to be the starter for next season, but meanwhile, Diaz has an opportunity to establish himself as a big leaguer, while Lee is smashing balls in Reno.

That Myles Straw trade is the classic buy low, sell high and continues to pay off for the Astros. It’s netted two MLB players for a light-hitting center fielder with 0 power.

As far as projections go, with no MLB experience Julks and Salazar will project to their actual statistics on the season, which very possibly could look weird early, but will settle down as the season progresses.

Diaz’s has been calculated and here is Blanco’s, which I’m dubious about in most categories, because of the change in role.

My model is based largely on past performance and Blanco was a closer at points during his MiLB career (hence the 3 saves), so the vast majority of his numbers are based on that role.

With the Astros, he’s scheduled to be a spot starter and long man, so there’s little faith in my math at this point.

The good news is his MLB sample size is so small that what he does this season will weigh heavier early in season than for Hector Neris, for example.

As an aside, fresh faces are welcomed, in general, and seen as necessary to continue turning over the roster for the long-term benefit of the organization.

Let’s get this thing started.

Thanks for reading!