Prospecting - Jake Bloss and Cam Fisher
"Budget Savers" and Quality Starts
One of the topics I hope to cover more this season is the Astros minor leaguers because they are the future of the organization.
How that coverage manifests, I’m not sure. With 162 games and daily updates, that leaves little time or space in my brain, but I think it’s important and readers enjoy them.
Over the next couple of weeks, I plan to take a look at some of the 2023 draftees and while none of these players are close to being in Houston, it’s good to know how it’s hanging, so to speak.
In our second installment, we take a look at 2023 third-round pick Jake Bloss and 2023 fourth-rounder Cam Fisher.
Jake Bloss - Round 3, 99th Overall
With their 3rd round pick and the 99th pick overall, the Astros selected 6’3, 205-pound, RHP Jake Bloss from Georgetown University via Lafayette College where Bloss spent 3 seasons.
In college Bloss’ fastball averaged around 93, touched 97 and he throws four pitches, including an overhand curve, slider and changeup.
Once signed, Bloss spent a few days in the Florida Complex League before heading off to Fayetteville in mid-August where he accumulated a 2.76 ERA in 16.1 innings.
Bloss struck out 20, but walked 11 in those 16.1 innings, and that’s been the rub back to his eval - he has swing-and-miss stuff, but hasn’t exhibited the necessary control.
Overall, Bloss is seen as a below-average prospect (40 grade) and perhaps a bullpen arm at some point.
On the plus side, MLB.com’s evaluation included this line:
Maybe he’s a bullpen arm when all is said and done, but he could be a very good Day 2 value.
Bloss was signed for just under $500,000, a below-slot amount, but selected 79 spots ahead of his eval (178).
Cam Fisher- Round 4, 131st Overall
Similarly, Houston’s 4th round pick, Cam Fisher, was selected 79 spots ahead of his 210th ranking and “budget saver” is not something you want to see in the scouting report of your 4th round pick.
The 6’3, 205-pound Fisher slammed 30 home runs (3rd in NCAA D1) for the Charlotte 49ers before being selected by the Astros and spent the requisite minute in the FCL before heading to Fayetteville.
In 31 games with the Woodpeckers Fisher hit 5 home runs and batted .273, but struck out 44 times.
The left-handed batting Fisher is a pull hitter and struggles with anything but fastballs and profiles as a likely left fielder in the Big Leagues due to an average arm.
Fisher is the third consecutive Astros draft pick that MLB.com rated as a 40.
Fisher has played in 1 game with the Astros this spring and is 0 for 2 with 2 strikeouts.
In Other News
I’ve continued to investigate quality starts for an upcoming project I’m working on with BetSided and the numbers are quite clear.
Teams with a quality start won 69% of the time in 2023 and while I’m still working through the data, teams that got a quality start when their opponent didn’t get a quality start won 78% of the time (analysis not complete).
Ignore all the complaints about quality starts - only about 10% of them are “giving up 3 runs in 6 innings” - the team wins at almost a 70% rate, almost 80% if the other team doesn’t get a quality start, too.
Intuitively it makes so much sense. By definition, your starter has given you length and not given up many earned runs. No matter what your offense has done, you’re at most a bloop and a blast from being back in the game or maybe even ahead.
More to come soon.
Until then I wrote about betting Yordan for MVP.
Thanks for reading!