Quality Start Percentages
One reason not to trade Framber
This is a very simple chart showing the number of starts for each pitcher, the number of quality starts and the percentage of starts that were quality.
If you’ve followed along for a while you know I believe in the quality start more than most, not as an individual statistic, but more as a team one, as it’s clear a team wins more often when they get a quality start.
The numbers above come from the baseball-reference.com database and don’t agree with my total from the season (68). There could be a couple of reasons for this: (1) I missed a couple or (2) different definitions of quality starts. Some include only earned runs, some include any run allowed.
For consistency, this season I’ll use the baseball-reference number, but as far as I can tell they don’t annotate a quality start anywhere in their box scores. If I’m missing it let me know.
At any rate, this is a great argument for not trading Framber. Despite his not-so-great season, he provided 20 quality starts.
Roughly 2 of every 3 times out for Framber the Astros had a great chance to win.
That’s not easily replaced and moving Framber throws in the towel in what I believe will be the Astros last chance to contend for several years (depending on the return, of course).
For me, there’s a question of if J.P. France can duplicate the 57% quality start rate of 2023.
Assuming 30 starts, 57% comes out to 17 quality starts and if the Astros can win 70% of those (2023 win % in quality starts) that’s 12 wins.
That number might seem low for a guy who won 11 games in 24 starts last season, but I’m only talking about quality starts - there are theoretically 13 other starts for France.
If Framber and J.P. France hit last year’s quality start percentages and the Astros get a full season at 55% quality starts from JV, well things begin to look a lot better.
That’s a big if for France, whose ERA was up over a point after the All-Star Break and Statcast numbers scream serious regression ahead.
Obviously, the team needs more from Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown, in general, and quality starts in particular.
But back to trading Framber. I was disappointed in how he handled himself in 2023 and openly questioned whether he has the mental makeup to be an “ace” for a contending team. He was a disaster in the playoffs.
The ace is not necessarily the guy that wins the most games, but rather the guy that you can depend on almost every time out to the mound. I certainly didn’t feel that way about Valdez in 2023.
Once JV returned I saw him in the Ace role and that goes for this year, too, unless Framber has a mental leap.
That said, 20 quality starts are outstanding, and that came in a “down” season for Framber.
Valdez will be making $12.1 million this season in what I see as a make-or-break one for his future with the Astros.
The Astros need Framber, whether he’s the Ace or second in line, if they hope to contend in 2024.
That could all change if Houston isn’t contending late in the summer and begin to look to the future, while another team looks for a starter in the present.
Thanks for reading!