Quantifying the Outfield Weakness
Analyzing the post-Tucker Astros outfield
Ever since the Kyle Tucker trade and Christian Walker signing the kid and I have been batting ideas for the outfield back and forth with no real resolution.
Big Dreams, Small Purse
He’s shared some pie-in-the-sky Champagne Wishes and Caviar Dreams (Santander, more on that below), while I have been more realistic (the return of 2023 Chas) and pessimistic (someone off the scrap heap).
Dana Brown continues to say the Astros want to add an outfielder and a left-handed bat, which makes sense given the hole Kyle Tucker left behind on his way to Wrigley Field.
While plenty of outfielders remain available, it’s a foregone conclusion that a big splash isn’t likely to happen, at least not without a trade of Ryan Pressly to free up $14 million.
We’ll evaluate that when and if it happens, but for now we want to do what we do best - quantify the situation as it is, realizing this is just one team component, and the Astros still currently have the best roster in the division.
The Sad Math
Using fangraphs.com’s Roster Resource projected lineups and the 2024 fWAR for the players, here is how the AL West outfields stack up.
I included only the projected starters as you can understand the challenges of guessing how many starts Mauricio Dubon will get in left field and the like would generate.
The intent is not to be perfect, but rather provide a big picture Houston we have a problem-type view.
And yes, there is a problem.
We can discuss and debate the individual players and why this or that is or isn’t going to happen, but the gap is such that it makes that type of argument less compelling or even interesting.
The data is clear.
OK, so that’s last year and we expect big things this year from Chas, Jake (again) and…Taylor Trammell.
Fans often think their players will magically improve while everyone else’s will stay the same or get worse.
Turns out in the Steamer World everyone gets better.
Using the Steamer Projections from fangraphs.com here are the projected numbers for the starting outfields:
It’s the same 7.1 difference from the best outfield in the division with the Rangers and Angels taking a big leap forward and the Astros still woefully short, pulling up the rear.
We all knew trading Tucker was a big hit to the outfield and as I pointed out last month the infield is better on balance than it was last season (Walker is a massive upgrade, Paredes a smaller downgrade).
In essence, the Astros traded a stronger infield for a weaker outfield.
Back to that outfield. The gap between the Mariners and Astros is so wide that it would take 3 Anthony Santander’s (2.4 projected fWAR) to fill.
But Parker’s pipe dream has at least a modicum of potential.
How It Plays Out
If this offseason has shown us anything, it’s that Brown is willing to move pieces around and even off the Chess board to keep the Astros window open.
At least their AL West window.
But Brown has constraints given the Astros cap situation and outside of weakening an already questionable bullpen by trading Pressly, look for the Astros to try and improve on the margins or go the youth route when and if Jacob Melton is ready.
Whether they trade Pressly or not, it’s going to be a different-looking Astros team that takes to a different-named park come late March.