Salvaging Minneapolis
Astros rally to take Twins series and jet to Seattle
It was a long, hard comeback, but it only took 2 pitches in the 9th for an Isaac Paredes single and Yordan Alvarez’s first bomb, and I do mean bomb, of the season to propel the Astros to their second series win.
I preach “it’s early” all the time and just mentioned fans not learning anything from last season’s slow start, but it somehow felt like a “big” win, at least as big as a win can feel in game 9 of 162.
Updated Projections
5.6% of the way through the season and Yainer is beginning to see some downward trending.
Diaz, who had a preseason projection of .297/.327/.481 with 20 HR and 79 RBI, is off to a .077/.143/.077 start with 1 RBI.
Let the merry-go-round begin as reports are that Contreras has been optioned and Logan VanWey recalled.
If that comes to fruition, it’s another spot on prediction from Kenny Van Doren of Astros Future, who gave us VanWey as a “dark horse” to contribute in 2025 back in November.
Astros Expected Wins
This is a quick reminder that even on days without a post, I typically update this graph under the Astros Expected Wins tab at the top of every page.
Quality At-Bat Numbers
Paredes leads the parade.
What counts as a quality at-bat? Different people have different definitions.
Some of the things I look for:
Hard Hit >= 95 MPH
Base Hit
BB
HBP
SF
SAC
Advancing a runner
8+ pitch at-bat
RBI
Pitches per Plate Appearance
Isaac’s numbers have dropped quite a bit, but expected volatility this early in the season.
Base Running
With the caveat that it’s early and Altuve is a menace on the bases (both good and bad), early returns have the Astros improved.
They currently sit at 11th in the league and +0.5 as a team.
Detailed Pitching Stats
It’s taken some work to get it set up and I may adjust along the way, but this kind of thing offers something not typically seen.
QS = Quality Starts
KS = Kikuchi Starts
EI = Easy Inning, which is defined as 10 or less pitches
SDI = Shut Down Inning, which is holding a team scoreless the half inning after the Astros score.
PSDI = Number of Potential Shut Down Innings.
IO = Retired side In Order.
Need some length from Wesneski today.
Fangraphs uses version 2 of the Game Score metric and that’s what I’ll be using here.
Of note is that these change in retrospect, based on the constant used in the formula which is designed to keep the league average at 50.
I will update periodically.
On to the bullpen.
Still working through the kinks here.
All Bryan King does is throw strikes and get outs.
A quick reminder these are “Opportunities”, not appearances. King has four appearances, but in one of them he didn’t have an opportunity for an Easy Inning since he faced just one batter.
Two shutdown innings from Montero and two from Hader on Sunday.
Playing Time Breakdown
Second base and the outfield has been a mix and match.
Here’s the break down.
Rodgers has done well, except a dropped ball on a throw, but appears to be settling in at second base.
The experiment continues in left and boy is it an adventure. Routine is not routine.
As a reminder, for his career, Yordan slashes .326/.410/.633 when playing left field and .283/.377/.553 when DHing.
Are we seeing a shift in right field? Dezenzo has started three of the first nine games.
He also looks competitive at the plate, which Smith has not in the last few games.
After sharing time early, Jake is manning center and had a nice day at the plate on Sunday.
Rando Stats of the Day
Astros starting pitchers are 26th in the league in walks per nine innings pitched at 4.57 and 27th in BB% at 12.2%.
League averages are 3.31 and 8.7%, respectively.
Cam Smith has the third-lowest O-Swing% on the team at 25.6%. Victor Caratini (14.3%) and Brendan Rodgers (19.7%) are the only Astros with lower O-Swing%.
As always, thanks for reading and look for a post later in the week!