The Cost of Losing Bregman
It's way more than 4.1 fWAR and it's more than just Bregman
I’m not a believer in the various WAR incarnations and therefore use them sparingly.
To their credit, fangraphs admits it’s version of WAR is “not meant to be a perfectly precise indicator of a players contribution.”
One (1.0) fWAR certainly doesn’t equate to exactly one win as we’ll see below and the various versions of WAR vary widely (also see below).
I’m going to use fWAR today though, because it’s the best advanced tool I can find in an attempt to quantify in terms of wins what the loss of Alex Bregman will mean to Houston.
I’m also leery of projections that have the 2025 Astros totaling 45.9 fWAR when they just completed a season with 40.5 fWAR and Bregman (4.1), Kikuchi (1.4), Verlander (0.7) and Ferguson (0.3), among others are free agents.
That’s forecasting a ~13.3% increase when you’re losing at least ~17% of your fWAR production.
Furthermore, penciling in Luis Garcia for 127 innings and a 1.4 fWAR and Lance McCullers for 74 innings and a 1.0 fWAR seems overly optimistic (and there are others like this).
Sure, they could re-sign Bregman and/or sign other free agents, but these numbers don’t count theoreticals, they’re as the roster stands right now.
It’s not just the Astros either. Mike Trout is good, but do we really expect the Angels to go from a 13.1 fWAR to a 33.5 fWAR in one offseason? Are they getting Ohtani back? Two Ohtani’s?
Examples like these make me question using the statistic at all.
It could all work out when the dust settles, weird things happen with my numbers sometimes, too.
It just doesn’t look right, which makes me question the assumptions and ultimately the usefulness of the metric.
But it is what we have and…
Free Agency is in full swing, players are swapping organizations and rosters are changing.
The info below comes from fangraphs and is as of Tuesday, November 5 and is explained this way on the site:
…these reflect a team's current roster and are regularly updated.
It includes the latest transactions. For example, Alex Bregman’s 4.1 fWAR has been removed from the Astros 3B column because he’s now a free agent.
It appears to be looking forward as the detail for third base projects 0.9 fWAR from Whitcomb, 0.4 for Dezenzo and 0.2 for Dubon.
This is interesting in many respects, so let’s evaluate and discuss.
For 2024 the MLB the fWAR per win was 0.41. 999.7 total fWAR/2427 wins.
Using the MLB average (.41) the Astros would project to 112 wins with 45.9 fWAR and 100 wins at .46 fWAR per win.
One is ludicrous, one a stretch and neither are likely.
At the .41 number a replacement level third baseman (0.0 fWAR) would theoretically cost Houston about 10 wins in 2025. 4.1 fWAR/.41 = 10.
The Astros average was .46 fWAR per win (40.5/88). Using that number, the loss of Bregman could be 8.9 less wins for Houston. 4.1 fWAR/.46 = 8.9.
As an aside, fWAR digs the long ball. .220 hitting Cal Raleigh bashed 34 homers and knocked in 100 RBI and was rewarded with a 5.4 fWAR, which is about 15% above bWAR (4.7).
With the current state of the roster, including no Bregman, the Astros are worst in the division at 1B, SS (tied), 3B and CF. This is pretty much in step with the areas I indicated needed addressing or were problems.
The Astros are projected best in the division at RF, DH, relief pitching, batting and overall pitching.
The latest count I had was the Astros losing 6.9 fWAR to date (based on 2024 fWAR for individual players). The acquisition of Taylor Trammell actually hurt due to his -0.2 fWAR last season.
Why am I using 2024 numbers? The Garcia and McCullers projections above and the total fWAR projected for Houston in 2025 leads to serious doubts about the projections and I believe the 2024 numbers are more likely to reflect 2025 than the projections in most cases.
The Astros are not the only team in the AL West taking big hits as the Rangers have had a worse week, losing over 10 fWAR to date.
Conclusion: It’s About More Than Bregman
Bregman is the big name and biggest fWAR that the Astros could lose via free agency and given the data I have, replacing Bregman with an “average” Major Leaguer (0.0 fWAR) could cost the Astros from 9-10 games.
That number seems high to me and I acknowledge my theory (and math) hasn’t been tested.
But it’s about more than Bregman as the -6.9 net fWAR lost already shows. Using the .41/.46 numbers above means the Astros will have to replace between 15 and 16.8 wins as things stand today.
Assuming they lose Bregman, players and (presumably) positive fWAR will be added and reduce the 15-16.8 net loss calculation above.
The question is by how much.
I put a number on it to help readers understand the scope of the Astros losses, but whether it’s 15 or 17 or some other number, the main point is it’s not trivial.
Thanks for reading!
