The Future: Jacob Melton
The most anticipated prospect of the 2025 cycle
The Future
Last November I reached out to Kenny Van Doren of Astros Future (I highly recommend their podcast) for players who had the potential to help the Astros in 2024.
No one knows more about Astros prospects than Kenny.
Kenny shared three names and he was correct on all three as Spencer Arrighetti spent most of the season in the Astros rotation, Joey Loperfido saw time in Houston before being traded to Toronto and Will Wagner debuted with the Blue Jays in that same trade and raked.
That worked out so well that I thought I’d ask Kenny about potential contributors in 2025.
This is the second in a three-part (or four, including “Dark Horses”) series.
The Prospect - Jacob Melton
The 6’2, 208-pound Melton, who is currently the Astros No. 1 prospect, started his college career at Linn-Benton Community College in Oregon before matriculating to Oregon State where the pandemic and a shoulder injury limited production in his first two seasons.
Melton made up for lost time and then some in 2022, slashing .360/.424/.670 with 17 home runs and 83 RBI in 261 plate appearances, adding 21 steals in 22 attempts to boot.
Houston selected Melton in the second round (No. 64 overall), surprised he was still available at that slot and signed the Medford, Oregon native for $1,000,000.
After a quick stop with the Astros FCL team after signing, Melton moved on to Class A Fayetteville for the balance of the 2022 season, batting .324 with 4 home runs and 13 RBI in 71 at-bats.
Melton opened 2023 at A+ Asheville, slashing .244/.338/.454 with 18 bombs and 41 stolen bases before being promoted to AA Corpus Christi in late August.
Melton also opened the 2024 season in Corpus, slashing .248/.307/.443 with 10 home runs, 34 RBI and 19 stolen bases before moving up to Sugar Land on July 25.
In the hitter-friendly PCL, Melton slashed .260/.314/.405 with 5 home runs, 20 RBI and a perfect 11 for 11 record in stolen bases.
Scouting Report
Melton’s scouting grades are solid, including plus speed, which has been reflected in his success on the bases, including an 86% (81 of 94) success rate on steal attempts.
While he’s still refining his swing, Melton has shown power to all fields, but has struggled against left-handers.
Of note were positive returns on swing decisions, hard contact and exit velocity.
The one tool where Melton ranks simply “average” is “Hit” and his minor league numbers reflect the struggle, with batting averages of .244 in A+, .248 in AA and .260 in AAA.
While there is improvement from level to level, one certainly has to consider the PCL's hitter-friendly nature and, for reference, Jake Meyers hit .343 with 16 home runs in 271 at-bats with Sugar Land in 2021.
That said, the Astros projected Melton as a potential first-rounder during the 2022 draft and then opted to trade two other top 100 prospects and keep Melton in the most recent Justin Verlander acquisition, feeling his range gave him a better chance to play center field and, if that doesn’t work out, Melton’s arm and power are well-suited to right field.
Conclusion
The Astros need offensive improvement in center field and the Jake/Chas experiment has to be nearing an end, one way or another.
There’s certainly concern about his relatively low batting averages, but assuming Melton continues to develop his swing he’ll likely find his way to the Astros at some point in 2025, if not on opening day.
Melton has too many positive skills - raw power to all fields, plus speed, exit velocity and swing decisions among them - to not be given an opportunity if the offensive production from center field remains static early.
To that end, Dana Brown has mentioned a left-handed option to work with Meyers and McCormick and the left-handed batting Melton fits that bill, too.
Maybe that left-handed bat is in-house.
In the long term, depending on how next offseason plays out, Melton could be an ideal candidate to play right field.
Thanks for reading!
I think there’s enough there for the Astros to continue working with him, for sure. Is he one of those “yeah but he strikes out 25% of the time” players? Probably. Maybe? Who knows yet. I’ll plan on being there on his debut because by then, we’ll likely NEED him to work out, versus hoping he does.
To your point, if we were willing to keep him over Gilbert & Clifford, seems the Astros brass wants to see where this road takes us. Good writeup!