The Future: Spencer Arrighetti
Part 1 - The Young Righthander
The Future
Most of the time when I look at the Astros top prospects on MLB.com I’m dubious of the “ETA” estimates listed for various players.
If you look right now, it’ll show several that have 2023 as their ETA even though they didn’t appear to be close to seeing time at Minute Maid Park.
With this in mind, I reached out to Kenny Van Doren of Astros Future (highly recommend their podcast) for players that have the potential to help the Astros in 2024.
No one knows more about Astros prospects than Kenny.
This is the first in a series on Astros minor leaguers Kenny brought to my attention.
The Prospect - Spencer Arrighetti
Arrighetti was born in Albuquerque, attended high school at Cinco Ranch in Katy and will turn 24 on the second day of 2024.
After playing at three colleges in three seasons, the 6’2 Arrighetti was the Astros 6th round pick out of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette in 2021.
After getting his feet wet in the Florida Complex League (1-1, 2.25 ERA in 4 IP) Arrighetti was promoted to Low A Fayetteville where he had four solid appearances over the last two weeks of the 2021 season, recording a 2-1 record and 2.79 ERA in 4 appearances covering 9.2 IP.
Arrighetti then split 2022 between A+ Asheville (6-5, 5.04) and AA Corpus (1-1, 3.43).
Returning to Corpus to begin 2023, Arrighetti registered a 7-2 record over 13 appearances, including 8 starts and compiling a 4.15 ERA, while registering 79 strikeouts and 23 walks in 60.2 innings.
Arrighetti was promoted to AAA Sugar Land in late June and compiled a 2-5 record with a 4.64 ERA and 62 strikeouts and 36 walks over 64 innings, along with a 5.36 FIP and 5.96 xFIP.
His time at Sugar Land resulted in an 8.72 K/9 rate, but also a 5.06 BB/9 rate and 59% strikes on 1,170 pitches.
Scouting Report
As indicated by the numbers above, Arrighetti has struggled with command in the professional ranks after being a strike thrower in college.
In 245 minor league innings, Arrighetti has allowed only 208 hits, a .229 opponents batting average and struck out 315 (11.6 per 9 IP), but has walked 116 (4.3 per 9 IP).
That’s the not-so-good news, but there is this mostly encouraging passage:
Arrighetti now deals at 92-95 and touches 97 with a flat approach angle and late hop that make his heater tough to barrel. He has upgraded a mediocre slider with tight break into a low-80s sweeper that misses a lot of bats. He also utilizes a mid-70s curveball to give hitters a different look and is trying to refine a mid-80s changeup that has fade but needs more separation from his fastball.
Arrighetti’s fastball and slider are rated as + pitches, while the changeup and curve are fringe-average and overall he’s rated an average prospect and is the 3rd ranked Astros prospect on MLB.com, jumping from 30th in 2022.
Conclusion
The Astros have done wonders with pitchers in this range and there’s no reason Arrighetti can’t be the next in line.
Hunter Brown topped out at a 55 overall grade (above average) and while he tailed off at the end of the 2023 season, Brown did record 11 wins as a rookie.
Perhaps a better comp is Bryan Abreu, but let’s be clear - Arrighetti does not have a 100 MPH heater.
That said, Abreu’s 302.2 MiLB innings resulted in just 234 hits, 392 strikeouts and 187 walks along with a 50 overall rating.
Same rating, very similar strikeout and walks per 9, with less power. The caveat is there is a difference between Arrighetti’s top-end velo and Abreu’s.
The point here is not to say that Arrighetti is the next Bryan Abreu, but rather that pitchers with a similar profile have been productive in Houston.
Thanks for reading!