Updated Projections - 111 of 162 Games
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Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 68.5% Preseason Projections: 31.5%
The Astros are 57-54, in 1st place in the American League West, 1.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 85-77 finish, a virtual tie with the Mariners and gives the Astros a 43.6% chance of winning the Division and a 49.5% chance of making the playoffs.
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Season Projections
Aledmys Diaz’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Pedro Leon’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without any MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
Quality start, but high stress for Arrighetti, 100 pitches at aLI of 1.06.
This was Arrighetti’s 5th start over 100, with the most recent coming on July 13.
Always a balance between team needs (length), stress on an arm and game situation.
Not too worried about him at this point, but worth keeping an eye on moving forward due to IP total.
He is at 98 IP and I have him projected for 143.
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 64 Over: 44 Push: 3
Under: 57.7% Over: 39.6% Push: 2.7%
Streak: 3 UNDER
If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.
Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck
Through games of 8.4.24
Luck Rankings
Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.
Astros are 26th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.
The Astros are 10-18 in one-run games.
The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).
Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.
.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.
In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
Rolling 30-Day Batting
Rolling 30-Day Arms
Post All-Star Break Bats
MLB Power Rankings
On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.
These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.
50.00 = 40.50 wins
75.00 = 60.75 wins
100.00 = 81.00 wins
125.00 = 101.25 wins
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