Updated Projections - 12 of 162

Astros fall to 5-7

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 7.4%

Preseason Projections: 92.6%

Season Projections

Chas McCormick has done a nice job in his time at the top of the lineup, but there are still miles to go before Altuve is ready.

Jose Abreu has shown 0 power after hitting just 15 home runs last year. We’re 7.4% into the season, so I’m not saying it won’t come, but homers are just part of the power equation - a double every once in a while would be nice. An ISO power No. of .020 is a concern.

On the whole, the Astros starters have been slightly above mediocre and certainly haven’t performed like we all envisioned pre-season.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Limited experience for Urquidy against Pirates, but Rich Hill is a vet who’s seen some of the Astros over the years. Maybe today is the day Abreu shows something.

Bullpen Usage

Despite 3 pitchers being used yesterday, the bullpen is still in decent shape, especially with the off day tomorrow.

Of note, 12 games in Pressly has 2 losses on 0 save opportunities.

K Prop

My numbers have Jose Urquidy 5.49, while the market is at 5.0. To win Urquidy would have to hit 6, so it’s a no-bet for me.

Odds

Astros are large favorites again at -178 on Money Line, but you can get them -1.5 for -104.

It bit me yesterday, but I’d go with the -1.5 again today.

Projected Standings

Still weird, but seeing the edges of things firming up a bit.

Is there such a thing as a big series in mid-April less than 10% of the way through the season?

Remember this is not a “prediction”, but closer to “If they keep playing the way they’ve played...”

A’s are bad. Real bad.

May not mean anything note of the day

Over the previous two seasons, Jose Abreu has slugged 70 doubles, 2 triples and 45 home runs. In 12 games this season he has 1 double.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 12.

Thanks for reading!