Updated Projections - 13 of 162

Astros put it together in final game in Pittsburgh

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 8.0%

Preseason Projections: 92.0%

Season Projections

Just as I wrote about Jose Abreu’s lack of power, he doubles into the gap in left-center to score Wednesday’s first run. Sure, homers are better, but Abreu had 40 doubles last season and was on pace for about 13 this year. Baby steps.

Chas continues to perform leading off [.318/.375/.545] as Dubon does everywhere [.361/.395/.444].

Updated projections are below.

The Astros starters are now 4th in MLB in ERA at 3.38 after 3 quality starts in the last 4 games, but the FIP is lagging a bit at 13th.

Even the one start that wasn’t quality in the last four (Javier went 6, but gave up 4 runs), wasn’t too taxing on the bullpen.

Weirdly, Ryan Pressly has had 0 save opportunities in the first 13 games of the season.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

Between them, Luis Garcia and Martin Perez have faced the opponents on 200 plate appearances and allowed exactly 0 home runs.

The numbers look to favor Garcia a bit, but the Astros are going to have to string some hits together to score if history is any indication.

Bullpen Usage

Off days help tremendously, but so do quality starts, because by definition you get at least 6 IP from the starter. The Astros have 4 consecutive games of getting at least 6 from the starter.

K Prop

Officially my model shows Garcia with 4.50 strikeouts, but the caveat is that Garcia has struck out this group of Rangers at a much higher clip (33.3%) over the 48 plate appearances, as shown in “Today’s Matchup” above. That significantly affects the results of my model, especially with the market at 5.5. My adjusted number comes out at 5.75 and while I lean over, early season variance has me staying away.

Odds

Astros are -168 on Money Line, which would return only $61.73 on a $100 bet. Too much risk. I’d look at an alternative, perhaps the Astros team total over 4.5 at -115 which would net $86.96

Projected Standings

The only thing we’ve established after two weeks is that the A’s aren’t very good. One bad loss by the Rangers leaves the Angels at the top. Patience, we’re only 8% of the way through the season.

May not mean anything note of the day

Through 13 games the Astros are 9 of 11 on stolen bases. In the first 13 games of 2022, they were 4 of 7.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 13.

Thanks for reading!