Updated Projections - 130 of 162 Games
Home Stretch
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Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 80.2% Preseason Projections: 19.8%
The Astros are 70-60, in 1st place in the American League West by 4.5 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 88.7% chance of winning the Division and an 90.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Different Update
Over 80% through the regular season means the day-to-day stats will change little, so I decided to focus on other things from time to time.
NEW Podcast Episode - Part 2 of One Year Wonders
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Ben Gamel’s will also reflect a prorated season, because we are only interested in his performance as an Astro.
Yusei Kikuchi, Hector Neris and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
30 Days Bats and Arms
Expected Wins | Projected Standings | Power Rankings
Where the Astros stand after 130 games:
Again, 130 games into the season there are generally not seismic shifts as each game is one data point out of an ever-increasing number.
By my numbers, Houston projects to 88 wins and here’s how they got there.
This is why I came up with my own expected wins. To reach the 91 win mark the Astros would need to finish 21-11.
Possible, but not likely.
Of course, the Pythag number could be adjusted downward over the next 32 games, but I don’t think it’s a good number right now.
Here is what the entire AL West looks like.
Below is MLB through games of 8.25.24
Good news! I’ve automated this process (Power Rankings and Luck Rankings, too!), so it will be a faster update in the future.
Finally, if you’re a power ratings kind of guy/girl. Here you go.
Thank you for reading.