Updated Projections - 143 of 162 Games
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Be sure to check out pages that are updated daily:
Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 88.3% Preseason Projections: 11.7%
The Astros are 77-66, in 1st place in the American League West by 4.5 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 96.1% chance of winning the Division and a 97.6% chance of making the playoffs.
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Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Ben Gamel’s will also reflect a prorated season, because we are only interested in his performance as an Astro.
Yusei Kikuchi, Hector Neris and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress
Expected Wins | Projected Standings
Where the Astros stand after 143 games:
143 games into the season there are generally not seismic shifts as each game is one data point out of an ever-increasing number.
By my numbers, Houston projects to 88 wins and here’s how they got there.
Here is what the entire AL West looks like.
Only the Angels played last night and the win did not push the xWins to 68, so this graph remains correct.
Below is MLB through games of 9.9.24
Good news! I’ve automated this process (Power Rankings and Luck Rankings, too!), so it will be a faster update in the future.
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Thank you for reading.