Updated Projections - 149 of 162 Games
On To San Diego
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Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 92.0% Preseason Projections: 8.0%
The Astros are 81-68, in 1st place in the American League West, 4.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, 1st place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 96.5% chance of winning the Division and a 97.7% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward’s numbers will reflect only time with Astros.
Caleb Ferguson and Hector Neris’ numbers will reflect only time with Astros.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
Extremely high stress for Brown on Wednesday. Brown’s 2nd highest of season (127.71 on 7.1), the third consecutive start over 103 and 4th over 103 in the last five starts.
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 84 Over: 61 Push: 4
Under: 56.4% Over: 40.9% Push: 2.7%
Streak: 1 Over
Projected Standings AL West Win Totals
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
Clutch
2.0 Excellent
1.0 Great
0.5 Above Average
0.0 Average
-0.5 Below Average
-1.0 Poor
-2.0 Awful
Thank you for reading.