Updated Projections - 156 of 162 Games
Home Stretch
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Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 96.3% Preseason Projections: 3.7%
The Astros are 85-71, in 1st place in the American League West by 5 games over the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 98.9% chance of winning the Division and a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Podcast Episode: Guy Hecker + 1871 White Stockings
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress Index
I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.
That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 88 Over: 64 Push: 4
Under: 56.4% Over: 41.0% Push: 2.6%
Streak: 1 OVER
AL West Expected Wins
Through games of 9.22.24
There’s an obvious flaw in the Pythagorean Expected wins (which is why I created my own). It could correct itself before seasons end, but not a given.
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
I do plan on developing something around the “Kikuchi Start” in the off-season.
30-Day Bats and Arms Report
Thank you for reading.