Updated Projections - 159 of 162 Games
Home Stretch
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Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 98.1% Preseason Projections: 1.9%
The Astros are 86-73, have won the American League West and will be the 3rd seed in the American League Playoffs.
Fangraphs projects an 88-74 finish.
Podcast Episode: Guy Hecker + 1871 White Stockings
Season Projections
Shay Whitcomb’s, Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Stress Index
Over 100 on average for Kikuchi is a concern (for the 10 starts with Houston) and Verlander not far behind with 95+ average.
Lots of stress in the last 5 days as the Astros clinched the West and in general, Abreu, Hader and Pressly with multiple high stress outings.
The IL may have been the best thing for Pressly, earlier this season.
I’ve counted 569 appearances in 159 games or 3.58 per game.
The Home Run Project
OVER | UNDER
Under: 89 Over: 65 Push: 5
Under: 56.0% Over: 40.9% Push: 3.1%
Streak: 1 OVER
AL West Expected Wins
Through games of 9.26.24
Getting outscored 17-6 has corrected the Pythagorean Expected Wins a bit, but it’s still off from the other projections (which is why I created my own). It still could correct itself before seasons end, but not a given.
Other Stats/Information
Quality Starts
Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.
It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.
Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.
I do plan on developing something around the “Kikuchi Start” in the off-season.
30-Day Bats and Arms Report
Thank you for reading.