Updated Projections - 37 of 162
The truth about quality starts
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 22.8%
Preseason Projections: 77.2%
Season Projections
Changes: Leaders now in green with yellow being optioned and red being out for the season.
Another quality start. See below for why this is important.
Also placed Luis Garcia at the bottom for clarity with his actual stats.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 37.
Bullpen Usage
Normally an off day would mean everyone is available, but Pressly went back to back and threw 21 pitches Wednesday, so he may be down.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Obviously no oppo experience for J.P. France.
K Prop
France is at 4.5, but way too early in his career to bet on him.
Odds
The Astros are -144, which I would take, but would not go higher than that, because the return isn’t worth the risk with France on the mound.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
A’s and Rays on the way to making history, if trends continue.
Below are the luck rankings from luckiest to unluckiest with 0.0 being no luck good or bad.
The Marlins are 12-0 in one-run games and that won’t continue.
It’s an interesting cluster of AL West teams at 25-27 and that’ll be interesting to follow through the season.
In general, expect regression from the teams with + numbers and progression from teams with - numbers.
May not mean anything note of the day
Some folks (mainly fantasy players) like to deride “Quality Starts”.
Truth: In quality starts the Astros are 13-4 (starters are 11-4) and in non-quality starts they are 6-14.
The average quality start for Houston:
6.65 IP
4.06 H
1.76 R
1.24 ER
7.35 K
1.59 BB
1.67 ERA
Zero quality starts have been “6 IP, 3 ER, 4.50 ERA”.
Only 3 times did the pitcher give up 3 ER, and they went 7 innings in all three.
6 times they gave up 0 ER
4 times they gave up 1 ER
4 times they gave up 2 ER
While technically true, the notion that Quality Starts should be discounted because “all you need is 6 innings and 3 earned runs” is idiotic, just as it would be to say “home runs aren’t a good measure of power because some are hit 340 feet”.
Thanks for reading!