Updated Projections - 44 of 162

Altuve's back and Bielak livin' on a prayer

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 27.2%

Preseason Projections: 72.8%

Season Projections

For the first time this season Jose Altuve makes an appearance in our projections and if it works out that the Astros get 400 ABs from him, well, that feels like a win given the situation in March.

Also made the command decision to put optioned players/pitchers at the bottom in yellow for clarity.

Their projections will continue to decrease as the season goes on, or increase if they are recalled.

Still a lot of innings to eat between Urquidy and Garcia. Not sure that 5 at a time is going to be sustainable for the long-term health of a very good bullpen.

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 44.

Bullpen Usage

No off day till next Thursday and used four high/relatively high-leverage arms out of the pen in the first game.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

No experience for Hunter Brown against these A’s.

K Prop

Had no idea the A’s would make Brandon Bielak look like Nolan Ryan, but staying away today. That said the number for Brown is 6.5 and if Bielak can reach 9 in 5 innings…

Odds

Astros -310 is a non-starter for me, but I sure would take them at -1.5 for -142. This A’s team is dreadful.

Projected Standings

I’m starting to believe the A’s really might win less than 40 games.

May not mean anything note of the day

Brandon Bielak threw 28 change-ups that generated 18 swings, of which 10 were whiffs.

Bonus: Last night also improved Bielak’s xwOBA from .425 to .370.

Thanks for reading!