Updated Projections - 5 of 162
Yordan's projections, how many pitches the bullpen has thrown, our first K prop, top exit velos, pitching matchup and more
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 3.1%
Preseason Projections: 96.9%
Season Projections
Yordan Alvarez with another titanic blast (his 100th) and 4 RBI, is now projected to have 35 HR and 103 RBI.
More on this below, but the bullpen has been used extensively through the first 5 games, with the starters lasting less than 5 innings on average and combining for 0 wins and a 4.94 ERA the first time through the rotation.
K Prop
Our first solid pick of the year. The market is set at 7, while my projection is almost two lower at 5.09.
The Tigers have struck out 28% of the time in 2023, but that's a small sample size and even if you applied Framber’s career average of 22.9% K rate, he’d need to face 27 or 28 batters to hit 7.
Under is the play.
Odds
Astros -290 which on one hand seems logical with Framber facing off against Matt Manning, but with the way the Astros are struggling the risk is not worth the return.
Bullpen Usage
The bullpen has made 19 appearances and thrown 354 pitches, with pitchers being used back-to-back three times in the first 5 games, which is unsustainable.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Jose Abreu is the only Astro righty Matt Manning has faced.
The Astros need a strong outing from Framber this evening.
Projected Standings
Coming soon. I’m now planning on this being released to paying subscribers first.
May not mean anything note of the day
Yordan’s 110.6 MPH, 435 foot home run is the second hardest hit ball for the Astros, trailing only Alvarez’s opening day home run off Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox, which was tracked at 111.9 MPH.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 5.
Thanks for reading!